Mansfield Town vs Port Vale: prediction and stats
EFL TrophyGroup North - 4Kick-off on September 2, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)One Call Stadium, Mansfield, Nottinghamshire
The Footlab model makes Mansfield Town the favourite at 60%, against 21% for a draw and 19% for Port Vale. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mansfield Town vs Port Vale?
A very open match: only 47 Elo points separate Mansfield Town (1,834) and Port Vale (1,786).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mansfield Town have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Port Vale have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Peterborough(away) | 1-2 | League One |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Manchester City U21(home) | 1-4 | EFL Trophy |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Doncaster(home) | 2-1 | League One |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Sheffield Utd(home) | 0-3 | League Cup |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Derby(home) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Tranmere(home) | 1-1 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Oldham(away) | 0-2 | League Two |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Wolves(away) | 0-3 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Blackpool(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Real Murcia(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Mansfield Town win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Port Vale win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | Mansfield Town 3-0 Port Vale | League One |
| Sep 20, 2025 | Port Vale 2-1 Mansfield Town | League One |
| Oct 31, 2023 | Mansfield Town 0-1 Port Vale | League Cup |
| May 28, 2022 | Mansfield Town 0-3 Port Vale | League Two |
| Mar 15, 2022 | Port Vale 3-1 Mansfield Town | League Two |
| Oct 19, 2021 | Mansfield Town 1-1 Port Vale | League Two |
Last archived meeting: Mansfield Town vs Port Vale on Jan 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Mansfield Town score 1.7 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Port Vale score 0.9 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mansfield Town | 1.7 | 1.7 | 5 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
| Port Vale | 0.9 | 1.4 | 5 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mansfield Town sit 4th in EFL Trophy (1 points from 3 matches) and Port Vale sit 1st (7 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Port Vale | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 7 |
| 4 | Mansfield Town | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mansfield Town vs Port Vale?
- The Footlab model makes Mansfield Town the favourite at 60%, against 21% for a draw and 19% for Port Vale.
- Where and when is Mansfield Town vs Port Vale played?
- Mansfield Town vs Port Vale is played on September 2, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at One Call Stadium, in the EFL Trophy.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.