Mardin 1969 vs Fatih Karagümrük: prediction and stats
1. LigRegular Season - 10Kick-off on October 14, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)21 Kasım Şehir Stadyumu, Mardin
The Footlab model makes Mardin 1969 the favourite at 44%, against 26% for a draw and 30% for Fatih Karagümrük. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mardin 1969 vs Fatih Karagümrük?
A very open match: only 44 Elo points separate Mardin 1969 (1,825) and Fatih Karagümrük (1,869).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mardin 1969 have 9 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats; Fatih Karagümrük have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Boluspor(away) | 3-0 | 1. Lig |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Antalyaspor(home) | 2-0 | 1. Lig |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Ümraniyespor(away) | 0-0 | 1. Lig |
| May 9, 2026 | Muş Sport Klübü(home) | 2-1 | 2. Lig |
| May 4, 2026 | Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor(home) | 0-0 | 2. Lig |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Bursaspor(home) | 2-1 | 1. Lig |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Ümraniyespor(home) | 2-1 | 1. Lig |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Iğdır FK(away) | 0-2 | 1. Lig |
| May 16, 2026 | Alanyaspor(home) | 2-1 | Süper Lig |
| May 9, 2026 | Kocaelispor(away) | 1-0 | Süper Lig |
How many goals should we expect?
Mardin 1969 score 1.5 and concede 0.5 goals per match over their last 15; Fatih Karagümrük score 1.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mardin 1969 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 9 | 4/15 | 7/15 |
| Fatih Karagümrük | 1.1 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mardin 1969 sit 2nd in 1. Lig (7 points from 3 matches) and Fatih Karagümrük sit 6th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Mardin 1969 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 7 |
| 6 | Fatih Karagümrük | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mardin 1969 vs Fatih Karagümrük?
- The Footlab model makes Mardin 1969 the favourite at 44%, against 26% for a draw and 30% for Fatih Karagümrük.
- Where and when is Mardin 1969 vs Fatih Karagümrük played?
- Mardin 1969 vs Fatih Karagümrük is played on October 14, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at 21 Kasım Şehir Stadyumu, in the 1. Lig.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.