Maribor vs Mura: prediction and stats
1. SNLRegular Season - 8Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Ljudski vrt, Maribor
The Footlab model makes Maribor the favourite at 73%, against 17% for a draw and 10% for Mura. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Maribor vs Mura?
Maribor starts as the favourite with a 200-point Elo edge (1,828 vs 1,628).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Maribor have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Mura have 4, 2 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Bravo(home) | 3-1 | 1. SNL |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Olimpija Ljubljana(away) | 1-1 | 1. SNL |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Koper(home) | 2-0 | 1. SNL |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Celje(away) | 1-1 | 1. SNL |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Brinje-Grosuplje(home) | 3-0 | 1. SNL |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Koper(home) | 0-1 | 1. SNL |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Brinje-Grosuplje(away) | 2-1 | 1. SNL |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Radomlje(home) | 1-3 | 1. SNL |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Nafta(away) | 2-5 | 1. SNL |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Olimpija Ljubljana(home) | 1-0 | 1. SNL |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Maribor win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Mura win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Mura 2-1 Maribor | 1. SNL |
| Mar 14, 2026 | Maribor 3-0 Mura | 1. SNL |
| Nov 29, 2025 | Mura 0-1 Maribor | 1. SNL |
| Sep 13, 2025 | Maribor 1-0 Mura | 1. SNL |
| Apr 21, 2025 | Mura 1-2 Maribor | 1. SNL |
| Feb 22, 2025 | Maribor 2-0 Mura | 1. SNL |
How many goals should we expect?
Maribor score 1.5 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Mura score 1.1 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maribor | 1.5 | 1.0 | 6 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Mura | 1.1 | 1.9 | 2 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Maribor sit 1st in 1. SNL (12 points from 6 matches) and Mura sit 3rd (1 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maribor | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 12 |
| 3 | Mura | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 8 | Mura | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Maribor vs Mura?
- The Footlab model makes Maribor the favourite at 73%, against 17% for a draw and 10% for Mura.
- Where and when is Maribor vs Mura played?
- Maribor vs Mura is played on September 5, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Ljudski vrt, in the 1. SNL.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.