Marino vs San Miguel: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Group 12 - 13Kick-off on November 29, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Antonio Domínguez Alfonso, Los Cristianos (Tenerife)
The Footlab model makes Marino the favourite at 44%, against 29% for a draw and 27% for San Miguel. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Marino vs San Miguel?
A very open match: only 34 Elo points separate Marino (1,704) and San Miguel (1,739).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Marino have 0 wins, 10 draws and 5 defeats; San Miguel have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 26, 2026 | Tenerife(home) | 0-6 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 10, 2026 | Arucas(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| May 1, 2026 | Villa Santa Brígida(away) | 0-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Unión Sur Yaiza(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Apr 18, 2026 | San Miguel(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Las Palmas III(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| May 3, 2026 | Panadería Pulido(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Telde(away) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Marino(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Mensajero(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Marino win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 San Miguel win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2026 | San Miguel 2-0 Marino | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Jan 6, 2026 | Marino 1-2 San Miguel | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
How many goals should we expect?
Marino score 0.7 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; San Miguel score 1.2 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marino | 0.7 | 1.5 | 3 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
| San Miguel | 1.2 | 1.1 | 4 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Marino sit 12th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 (39 points from 34 matches) and San Miguel sit 11th (39 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | San Miguel | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 37 | 43 | 39 |
| 12 | Marino | 34 | 8 | 15 | 11 | 44 | 40 | 39 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Marino vs San Miguel?
- The Footlab model makes Marino the favourite at 44%, against 29% for a draw and 27% for San Miguel.
- Where and when is Marino vs San Miguel played?
- Marino vs San Miguel is played on November 29, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Antonio Domínguez Alfonso, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 12.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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