Maritimo vs Estrela: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 32Kick-off on May 2, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio do Marítimo, Ilha da Madeira
The Footlab model makes Maritimo the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for Estrela. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Maritimo vs Estrela?
A very open match: only 43 Elo points separate Maritimo (1,995) and Estrela (1,952).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Maritimo have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Estrela have 4, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Academico Viseu(home) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Famalicao(away) | 2-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Casa Pia(home) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Estrela(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Machico(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Alverca(away) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Sporting CP(home) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Al-Nassr(home) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Maritimo(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Lusitano Évora 1911(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 1 Maritimo win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Estrela win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 29, 2026 | Maritimo 1-1 Estrela | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 11, 2023 | Maritimo 2-1 Estrela | Primeira Liga |
| Jun 3, 2023 | Estrela 2-1 Maritimo | Primeira Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Maritimo score 1.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Estrela score 1.4 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo | 1.1 | 1.1 | 6 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Estrela | 1.4 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Maritimo sit 4th in Primeira Liga (7 points from 3 matches) and Estrela sit 11th (2 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Maritimo | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 7 |
| 11 | Estrela | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Maritimo vs Estrela?
- The Footlab model makes Maritimo the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for Estrela.
- Where and when is Maritimo vs Estrela played?
- Maritimo vs Estrela is played on May 2, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio do Marítimo, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.