Casa Pia vs Arouca: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 32Kick-off on May 2, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Nacional, Jamor, Oeiras
The Footlab AI model makes Arouca the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 33% for Casa Pia. The most likely score is 1-1. If Arouca wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,422 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Casa Pia vs Arouca?
Arouca starts as the favourite with a 126-point Elo edge (2,141 vs 2,015).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Casa Pia vs Arouca
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Casa Pia
4-2-3-1- 9Henrique Araújo
- 80L. Ofori
- 16Silvi
- 70João Pedro Seno Luís Rêgo
- 11M. El Boukammiri
- 77B. Pauwels
- 18Geraldes
- 43David Sousa
- 75Pedro Rosas
- 3Kaly
- 95Ivan Mandić
Arouca
4-2-3-1- 17Barbero
- 7N. Djouahra
- 19A. Trezza
- 8T. Fukui
- 6E. van Ee
- 10Pablo Gozálbez
- 28Tiago Esgaio
- 3José Fontán
- 18O. Lebedenko
- 15Javi Sánchez
- 12I. de Arruabarrena
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 09:12 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Casa Pia have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Arouca have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Santa Clara(home) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Estoril(away) | 2-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | FC Porto(home) | 1-4 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Guimaraes(away) | 0-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Moreirense(home) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Estrela(home) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Sporting CP(away) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Santa Clara(home) | 1-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Estoril(away) | 0-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Maritimo(home) | 2-1 | Primeira Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Casa Pia wins, 1 draw, 0 Arouca wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2026 | Casa Pia 3-2 Arouca | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Arouca 0-2 Casa Pia | Primeira Liga |
| May 4, 2025 | Arouca 0-0 Casa Pia | Primeira Liga |
| Dec 20, 2024 | Casa Pia 3-1 Arouca | Primeira Liga |
| Feb 18, 2024 | Casa Pia 1-0 Arouca | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 17, 2023 | Arouca 0-1 Casa Pia | Primeira Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Casa Pia score 0.7 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Arouca score 1.4 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia | 0.7 | 1.7 | 4 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
| Arouca | 1.4 | 0.9 | 7 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Casa Pia sit 17th in Primeira Liga (4 points from 8 matches) and Arouca sit 5th (14 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Arouca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 7 | 14 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 17 | 4 |
A question about Casa Pia vs Arouca?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Casa Pia vs Arouca?
- The Footlab AI model makes Arouca the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 33% for Casa Pia.
- Where and when is Casa Pia vs Arouca played?
- Casa Pia vs Arouca is played on May 2, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Nacional, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.