Guimaraes vs Santa Clara: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 32Kick-off on May 2, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Guimarães
The Footlab model makes Guimaraes the favourite at 46%, against 28% for a draw and 26% for Santa Clara. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Guimaraes vs Santa Clara?
A very open match: only 17 Elo points separate Guimaraes (2,086) and Santa Clara (2,068).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Guimaraes have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Santa Clara have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Nacional(home) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Sporting CP(away) | 2-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Arouca(home) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Chaves(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Nottingham Forest(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Famalicao(home) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Academico Viseu(away) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Nacional(home) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Arouca(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Felgueiras 1932(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Guimaraes win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Santa Clara win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | Santa Clara 2-0 Guimaraes | Primeira Liga |
| Oct 4, 2025 | Guimaraes 2-1 Santa Clara | Primeira Liga |
| Apr 5, 2025 | Guimaraes 2-0 Santa Clara | Primeira Liga |
| Nov 10, 2024 | Santa Clara 1-0 Guimaraes | Primeira Liga |
| Mar 5, 2023 | Santa Clara 1-3 Guimaraes | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 9, 2022 | Guimaraes 1-0 Santa Clara | Primeira Liga |
Last archived meeting: Santa Clara vs Guimaraes on Mar 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Guimaraes score 1.4 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Santa Clara score 1.6 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guimaraes | 1.4 | 1.2 | 6 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
| Santa Clara | 1.6 | 0.9 | 7 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Guimaraes sit 9th in Primeira Liga (3 points from 3 matches) and Santa Clara sit 3rd (7 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Santa Clara | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 9 | Guimaraes | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Guimaraes vs Santa Clara?
- The Footlab model makes Guimaraes the favourite at 46%, against 28% for a draw and 26% for Santa Clara.
- Where and when is Guimaraes vs Santa Clara played?
- Guimaraes vs Santa Clara is played on May 2, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.