Benfica vs Rio Ave: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 32Kick-off on May 2, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica (da Luz), Lisboa
The Footlab AI model makes Benfica the favourite at 83%, against 12% for a draw and 5% for Rio Ave. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,440 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Benfica vs Rio Ave?
Benfica is a heavy favourite: 2,451 Elo points against 2,054, a 397-point gap.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Benfica vs Rio Ave
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Benfica
4-2-3-1- 14V. Pavlidis
- 25G. Prestianni
- 36João Palhinha
- 27Rafa
- 18L. Barreiro
- 10H. Sudakov
- 44Tomás Araújo
- 26S. Dahl
- 6A. Bah
- 2C. Lenglet
- 24Samuel Soares
Rio Ave
4-2-3-1- 11J. Blesa
- 7Diogo Bezerra
- 5A. Ntoi
- 79M. Patricio
- 54G. Liavas
- 80S. Clemmensen
- 20João Tomé
- 39Gustavo Mancha
- 17M. Vrousai
- 23F. Petrasso
- 32Vitor Hugo
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 10:56 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Benfica have 12 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat; Rio Ave have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | Celtic(home) | 4-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Guimaraes(home) | 2-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | FC Porto(away) | 1-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 16, 2026 | AC Milan(away) | 2-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Sep 13, 2026 | GIL Vicente(home) | 3-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Nacional(home) | 3-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Alverca(away) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Estrela(home) | 3-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Santa Clara(away) | 0-4 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Sporting CP(home) | 0-4 | Primeira Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Benfica wins, 2 draws, 0 Rio Ave wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | Rio Ave 0-2 Benfica | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 23, 2025 | Benfica 1-1 Rio Ave | Primeira Liga |
| Mar 16, 2025 | Rio Ave 2-3 Benfica | Primeira Liga |
| Oct 27, 2024 | Benfica 5-0 Rio Ave | Primeira Liga |
| May 17, 2024 | Rio Ave 1-1 Benfica | Primeira Liga |
| Jan 14, 2024 | Benfica 4-1 Rio Ave | Primeira Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Benfica score 3.2 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Rio Ave score 1.2 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 69% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benfica | 3.2 | 0.8 | 6 | 9/15 | 12/15 |
| Rio Ave | 1.2 | 1.8 | 3 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Benfica sit 2nd in Primeira Liga (19 points from 8 matches) and Rio Ave sit 14th (7 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 7 | 19 |
| 14 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 17 | 7 |
A question about Benfica vs Rio Ave?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Benfica vs Rio Ave?
- The Footlab AI model makes Benfica the favourite at 83%, against 12% for a draw and 5% for Rio Ave.
- Where and when is Benfica vs Rio Ave played?
- Benfica vs Rio Ave is played on May 2, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica (da Luz), in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 69% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.