Estrela vs Santa Clara: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 33Kick-off on May 9, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Campo Municipal dos Prazeres, Amadora
The Footlab AI model makes Santa Clara the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 33% for Estrela. The most likely score is 1-1. If Santa Clara wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,404 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Estrela vs Santa Clara?
Santa Clara starts as the favourite with a 140-point Elo edge (2,176 vs 2,036).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Estrela vs Santa Clara
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Estrela
4-2-3-1- 37L. Antonetti
- 10I. Stoica
- 99A. Marcus
- 14L. Zvonarek
- 39Eddy Doue
- 78Santiago Serra
- 55Rafa Soares
- 5S. Leković
- 21M. Scholze
- 4Bernardo Schappo
- 24Léo Linck
Santa Clara
4-3-3- 9Gonçalo Paciência
- 70Vinícius Lopes
- 10Brenner Lucas Gonçalves Santos
- 6Pedro Ferreira
- 8José Luís Rocha Tavares
- 20Tiago Ribeiro
- 5Guilherme Romão
- 4Pedro Pacheco
- 21Emanuel Fernandes
- 42Lucas Soares
- 1Lucas França
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 07:12 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Estrela have 6 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats; Santa Clara have 10, 4 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Arouca(away) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Academico Viseu(home) | 0-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Rio Ave(away) | 3-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 10, 2026 | SC Braga(home) | 2-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Famalicao(home) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Casa Pia(away) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | SC Braga(home) | 0-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Arouca(away) | 2-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Rio Ave(home) | 4-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Alverca(away) | 1-1 | Primeira Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Estrela win, 2 draws, 1 Santa Clara win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2026 | Estrela 1-0 Santa Clara | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 31, 2025 | Santa Clara 0-0 Estrela | Primeira Liga |
| Feb 23, 2025 | Estrela 0-0 Santa Clara | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 21, 2024 | Santa Clara 1-0 Estrela | Primeira Liga |
Last archived meeting: Estrela vs Santa Clara on Feb 7, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Estrela score 1.7 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Santa Clara score 1.7 and concede 0.5. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estrela | 1.7 | 1.4 | 3 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Santa Clara | 1.7 | 0.5 | 9 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Estrela sit 10th in Primeira Liga (10 points from 8 matches) and Santa Clara sit 4th (18 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 4 | 18 |
| 10 | Estrela | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 15 | 10 |
A question about Estrela vs Santa Clara?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Estrela vs Santa Clara?
- The Footlab AI model makes Santa Clara the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 33% for Estrela.
- Where and when is Estrela vs Santa Clara played?
- Estrela vs Santa Clara is played on May 9, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Campo Municipal dos Prazeres, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.