Estrela vs Santa Clara: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 33Kick-off on May 9, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Campo Municipal dos Prazeres, Amadora
The Footlab model makes Santa Clara the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Estrela. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Estrela vs Santa Clara?
Santa Clara starts as the favourite with a 116-point Elo edge (2,068 vs 1,952).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Estrela have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Santa Clara have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Alverca(away) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Sporting CP(home) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Al-Nassr(home) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Maritimo(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Lusitano Évora 1911(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Famalicao(home) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Academico Viseu(away) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Nacional(home) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Arouca(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Felgueiras 1932(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Estrela win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Santa Clara win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2026 | Estrela 1-0 Santa Clara | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 31, 2025 | Santa Clara 0-0 Estrela | Primeira Liga |
| Feb 23, 2025 | Estrela 0-0 Santa Clara | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 21, 2024 | Santa Clara 1-0 Estrela | Primeira Liga |
Last archived meeting: Estrela vs Santa Clara on Feb 7, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Estrela score 1.4 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Santa Clara score 1.6 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estrela | 1.4 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Santa Clara | 1.6 | 0.9 | 7 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Estrela sit 11th in Primeira Liga (2 points from 2 matches) and Santa Clara sit 3rd (7 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Santa Clara | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 11 | Estrela | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Estrela vs Santa Clara?
- The Footlab model makes Santa Clara the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Estrela.
- Where and when is Estrela vs Santa Clara played?
- Estrela vs Santa Clara is played on May 9, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Campo Municipal dos Prazeres, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.