Marsaxlokk vs Floriana: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 5Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Marsaxlokk Ground, Marsaxlokk
The Footlab model makes Floriana the favourite at 49%, against 28% for a draw and 23% for Marsaxlokk. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Marsaxlokk vs Floriana?
Floriana starts as the favourite with a 146-point Elo edge (1,718 vs 1,571).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Marsaxlokk have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Floriana have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Hibernians(home) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Balzan FC(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Gzira United(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Pyunik Yerevan(away) | 0-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 9, 2026 | Pyunik Yerevan(home) | 0-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Sliema Wanderers(home) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Birzebbuga(away) | 3-0 | Premier League |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Drita(away) | 1-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Drita(home) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 14, 2026 | Shamrock Rovers(away) | 1-5 | UEFA Champions League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Marsaxlokk win(s), 1 draw(s), 5 Floriana win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2026 | Floriana 2-1 Marsaxlokk | Premier League |
| Apr 15, 2026 | Marsaxlokk 1-3 Floriana | Premier League |
| Feb 18, 2026 | Floriana 0-0 Marsaxlokk | Premier League |
| Jan 3, 2026 | Floriana 1-0 Marsaxlokk | FA Trophy |
| Nov 23, 2025 | Floriana 2-1 Marsaxlokk | Premier League |
| Sep 20, 2025 | Marsaxlokk 1-2 Floriana | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Floriana vs Marsaxlokk on May 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Marsaxlokk score 1.3 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Floriana score 1.5 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marsaxlokk | 1.3 | 1.3 | 2 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Floriana | 1.5 | 1.1 | 8 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Marsaxlokk sit 4th in Premier League (4 points from 2 matches) and Floriana sit 3rd (6 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Floriana | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 6 |
| 4 | Marsaxlokk | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Marsaxlokk vs Floriana?
- The Footlab model makes Floriana the favourite at 49%, against 28% for a draw and 23% for Marsaxlokk.
- Where and when is Marsaxlokk vs Floriana played?
- Marsaxlokk vs Floriana is played on September 12, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Marsaxlokk Ground, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.