Marsaxlokk vs Hamrun Spartans: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 6Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Marsaxlokk Ground, Marsaxlokk
The Footlab model makes Hamrun Spartans the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Marsaxlokk. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Marsaxlokk vs Hamrun Spartans?
A very open match: only 51 Elo points separate Marsaxlokk (1,571) and Hamrun Spartans (1,622).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Marsaxlokk have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Hamrun Spartans have 4, 2 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Hibernians(home) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Balzan FC(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Gzira United(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Pyunik Yerevan(away) | 0-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 9, 2026 | Pyunik Yerevan(home) | 0-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Birkirkara(away) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Mosta(home) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Jul 16, 2026 | NSI Runavik(home) | 1-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 9, 2026 | NSI Runavik(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| May 15, 2026 | Valletta FC(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Marsaxlokk win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Hamrun Spartans win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Marsaxlokk 2-1 Hamrun Spartans | Premier League |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Marsaxlokk 3-2 Hamrun Spartans | Premier League |
| Feb 23, 2026 | Hamrun Spartans 2-0 Marsaxlokk | Premier League |
| Dec 14, 2025 | Hamrun Spartans 1-3 Marsaxlokk | Premier League |
| Sep 23, 2025 | Marsaxlokk 0-2 Hamrun Spartans | Premier League |
| Apr 30, 2025 | Marsaxlokk 0-1 Hamrun Spartans | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Marsaxlokk vs Hamrun Spartans on May 9, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Marsaxlokk score 1.3 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Hamrun Spartans score 1.4 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marsaxlokk | 1.3 | 1.3 | 2 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Hamrun Spartans | 1.4 | 1.4 | 3 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Marsaxlokk sit 4th in Premier League (4 points from 2 matches) and Hamrun Spartans sit 9th (0 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Marsaxlokk | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 9 | Hamrun Spartans | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Marsaxlokk vs Hamrun Spartans?
- The Footlab model makes Hamrun Spartans the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Marsaxlokk.
- Where and when is Marsaxlokk vs Hamrun Spartans played?
- Marsaxlokk vs Hamrun Spartans is played on September 19, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Marsaxlokk Ground, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.