Martina Franca vs Nocerina: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone HGroup H - 8Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Gian Domenico Tursi, Martina Franca
The Footlab model makes Martina Franca the favourite at 50%, against 28% for a draw and 22% for Nocerina. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Martina Franca vs Nocerina?
A very open match: only 56 Elo points separate Martina Franca (1,820) and Nocerina (1,764).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Martina Franca have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Nocerina have 3, 8 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Paganese(home) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone H |
| May 10, 2026 | Nardò(home) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone H |
| May 3, 2026 | Nola 1925(away) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Heraclea(home) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Città di Fasano(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Ischia(home) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone G |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Monastir(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone G |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Flaminia(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone G |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Atletico Lodigiani(away) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone G |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Latte Dolce(home) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone G |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 2 Martina Franca win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Nocerina win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 18, 2025 | Nocerina 2-1 Martina Franca | Serie D - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Mar 23, 2025 | Martina Franca 0-0 Nocerina | Serie D - Girone H |
| Nov 10, 2024 | Nocerina 0-2 Martina Franca | Serie D - Girone H |
| Jan 22, 2023 | Nocerina 0-1 Martina Franca | Serie D - Girone H |
| Sep 18, 2022 | Martina Franca 0-1 Nocerina | Serie D - Girone H |
Last archived meeting: Nocerina vs Martina Franca on May 18, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Martina Franca score 1.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Nocerina score 0.6 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martina Franca | 1.7 | 1.1 | 6 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Nocerina | 0.6 | 0.7 | 7 | 5/15 | 2/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Martina Franca | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 47 | 30 | 62 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Martina Franca vs Nocerina?
- The Footlab model makes Martina Franca the favourite at 50%, against 28% for a draw and 22% for Nocerina.
- Where and when is Martina Franca vs Nocerina played?
- Martina Franca vs Nocerina is played on October 18, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Gian Domenico Tursi, in the Serie D - Girone H.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.