Maruinense vs Frei Paulistano: prediction and stats
Sergipano - 2Regular Season - 1Kick-off on October 29, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Governador Antônio Carlos Valadares, Maruim, Sergipe
The Footlab AI model makes Frei Paulistano the favourite at 58%, against 22% for a draw and 20% for Maruinense. The most likely score is 1-1. If Frei Paulistano wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 3,045 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 22, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Maruinense vs Frei Paulistano?
Frei Paulistano starts as the favourite with a 197-point Elo edge (1,514 vs 1,317).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Maruinense vs Frei Paulistano
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Maruinense
4-3-3- GGabriel Andrade
- AAlex Santos Araújo
- AAlex Pernambucano
- MMatheus Felipe de Jesus Alves Lima
- LLuis Fagner da Silva Conceição
- HHebert Henrique de Santana
- EEricon Natan Francisco Guimaraes Souza
- AAdriano Galvão de Melo Júnior
- RRonaldo dos Santos Sousa
- JJhonata Aparecido Nascimento Santos
- WWillian dos Santos Gomes
Frei Paulistano
4-3-3- AAcássio
- TTiquinho
- HHudson
- MMatheus
- HHenrique Silva
- WWillian
- RRaúl Rocha
- PPedrinho
- DDaniel Santos
- JJorge
- EElvis
Computed on October 22, 2026 at 04:04 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Maruinense have 1 win, 2 draws and 12 defeats; Frei Paulistano have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2024 | Socorro Sport(away) | 3-0 | Sergipano - 2 |
| Oct 2, 2024 | Rosario Central(home) | 0-2 | Sergipano - 2 |
| Sep 25, 2024 | Aracaju FC(away) | 1-3 | Sergipano - 2 |
| Sep 20, 2024 | Flamengo SE(home) | 0-2 | Sergipano - 2 |
| Sep 15, 2024 | Flamengo SE(away) | 0-1 | Sergipano - 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2025 | Flamengo SE(away) | 4-0 | Sergipano - 2 |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Atletico Central(away) | 1-0 | Sergipano - 2 |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Desportiva Aracaju(home) | 0-1 | Sergipano - 2 |
| Oct 15, 2025 | Independente Simão Dias(away) | 3-0 | Sergipano - 2 |
| Oct 11, 2025 | Boca Júnior(home) | 5-1 | Sergipano - 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 0 Maruinense wins, 1 draw, 3 Frei Paulistano wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2022 | Maruinense 1-4 Frei Paulistano | Sergipano |
| Jan 30, 2022 | Frei Paulistano 2-1 Maruinense | Sergipano |
| Apr 4, 2021 | Maruinense 0-3 Frei Paulistano | Sergipano |
| Mar 3, 2021 | Frei Paulistano 0-0 Maruinense | Sergipano |
Last archived meeting: Maruinense vs Frei Paulistano on Mar 12, 2022
How many goals should we expect?
Maruinense score 0.5 and concede 2.5 goals per match over their last 15; Frei Paulistano score 2.0 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maruinense | 0.5 | 2.5 | 2 | 4/15 | 7/15 |
| Frei Paulistano | 2.0 | 1.0 | 6 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
A question about Maruinense vs Frei Paulistano?
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Maruinense vs Frei Paulistano?
- The Footlab AI model makes Frei Paulistano the favourite at 58%, against 22% for a draw and 20% for Maruinense.
- Where and when is Maruinense vs Frei Paulistano played?
- Maruinense vs Frei Paulistano is played on October 29, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Governador Antônio Carlos Valadares, in the Sergipano - 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.