Mash'al vs Neftchi: prediction and stats
Super LeagueRegular Season - 30Kick-off on December 2, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion im. Bahrom Vafoyev, Mubarek
The Footlab AI model makes Neftchi the favourite at 73%, against 18% for a draw and 9% for Mash'al. The most likely score is 0-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,402 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mash'al vs Neftchi?
Neftchi is a heavy favourite: 1,853 Elo points against 1,439, a 414-point gap.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Mash'al vs Neftchi
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Mash'al
4-3-3- 11M. Jurabaev
- 9I. Ganikhonov
- 10K. Murtazaev
- 8S. Abduraymov
- 5K. Tozhidinov
- 28E. Ismoilov
- 70Azizbek Choriyev
- 2Zafar Akramov
- 19Tokhirbek To'khtasinov
- 99B. Askarov
- 35D. Tukhtaboev
Neftchi
4-3-3- 7A. Ismailov
- 22Alisher Odilov
- 18S. Perica
- 5I. Alibaev
- 10J. Iskanderov
- 77Ratinho
- 52K. Kouao
- 4B. Ciger
- 15N. Abduganiyev
- 6I. Yuldoshev
- 1B. Ergashev
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 03:43 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mash'al have 1 win, 1 draw and 13 defeats; Neftchi have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Kokand-1912(away) | 0-3 | Super League |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Pakhtakor(home) | 1-2 | Super League |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Lokomotiv(away) | 0-3 | Super League |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Sogdiana(away) | 2-5 | Super League |
| Aug 26, 2026 | Navbahor(home) | 0-2 | Super League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | Al-Nassr(away) | 1-3 | AFC Champions League Elite |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Xorazm(home) | 2-2 | Super League |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Lokomotiv(away) | 1-0 | Super League |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya(home) | 1-0 | AFC Champions League Elite |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Surkhon(home) | 2-1 | Super League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Mash'al win, 1 draw, 4 Neftchi wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | Neftchi 3-0 Mash'al | Super League |
| Aug 21, 2025 | Neftchi 3-0 Mash'al | Super League |
| Jun 24, 2025 | Neftchi 0-1 Mash'al | Cup |
| Apr 11, 2025 | Mash'al 1-4 Neftchi | Super League |
| Nov 19, 2017 | Neftchi 2-1 Mash'al | Super League |
| Jun 19, 2017 | Mash'al 2-2 Neftchi | Super League |
How many goals should we expect?
Mash'al score 0.6 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Neftchi score 2.0 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mash'al | 0.6 | 2.1 | 1 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Neftchi | 2.0 | 1.3 | 7 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mash'al sit 16th in Super League (4 points from 23 matches) and Neftchi sit 2nd (52 points from 23 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Neftchi | 23 | 16 | 4 | 3 | 52 | 19 | 52 |
| 16 | Mash'al | 23 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 11 | 47 | 4 |
A question about Mash'al vs Neftchi?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mash'al vs Neftchi?
- The Footlab AI model makes Neftchi the favourite at 73%, against 18% for a draw and 9% for Mash'al.
- Where and when is Mash'al vs Neftchi played?
- Mash'al vs Neftchi is played on December 2, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion im. Bahrom Vafoyev, in the Super League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.