Pakhtakor vs Sogdiana: prediction and stats
Super LeagueRegular Season - 30Kick-off on December 2, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Paxtakor Markaziy Stadion, Tashkent
The Footlab AI model makes Pakhtakor the favourite at 55%, against 24% for a draw and 21% for Sogdiana. The most likely score is 1-1. If Pakhtakor wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 4,500 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 4, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Pakhtakor vs Sogdiana?
Pakhtakor starts as the favourite with a 204-point Elo edge (1,800 vs 1,595).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Pakhtakor vs Sogdiana
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Pakhtakor
4-2-3-1- 90S. Chinedu
- 23Abdurauf Bo'riyev
- 27S. Sobirkho'jaev
- 9I. Ibragimov
- 50Flamarion
- 17D. Khamdamov
- 4Zayed Tahseen
- 34S. Nasrullayev
- 55M. Abdumajidov
- 5M. Pouraliganji
- 12V. Nazarov
Sogdiana
4-3-3- 14L. Doriev
- 28S. Mavlonqulov
- 10J. Kaxramonov
- 17Ollobergan Karimov
- 7P. Mićin
- 6B. Asqarov
- 13F. Ivanović
- 2Z. Dzhuraboev
- 4B. Dzhumatov
- 8J. Boltaboev
- 27M. Mitrović
Computed on November 4, 2026 at 11:28 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Pakhtakor have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Sogdiana have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2026 | Al-Nassr(home) | 2-6 | AFC Champions League Elite |
| Oct 30, 2026 | Xorazm(away) | 1-0 | Super League |
| Oct 26, 2026 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya(away) | 0-1 | AFC Champions League Elite |
| Oct 23, 2026 | Neftchi(home) | 1-3 | Super League |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Navbahor(away) | 1-1 | Super League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2026 | Buxoro(home) | 1-1 | Super League |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Nasaf(away) | 1-2 | Super League |
| Oct 20, 2026 | Andijan(home) | 1-2 | Cup |
| Oct 16, 2026 | Bunyodkor(away) | 1-1 | Super League |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Lokomotiv(home) | 2-3 | Super League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Pakhtakor wins, 0 draws, 3 Sogdiana wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2026 | Sogdiana 2-4 Pakhtakor | Super League |
| Aug 15, 2025 | Pakhtakor 2-0 Sogdiana | Super League |
| Apr 6, 2025 | Sogdiana 2-0 Pakhtakor | Super League |
| Aug 26, 2024 | Sogdiana 0-1 Pakhtakor | Super League |
| Apr 26, 2024 | Pakhtakor 2-3 Sogdiana | Cup |
| Mar 30, 2024 | Pakhtakor 2-3 Sogdiana | Super League |
Last archived meeting: Sogdiana vs Pakhtakor on Mar 20, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Pakhtakor score 1.4 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Sogdiana score 1.6 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pakhtakor | 1.4 | 1.3 | 3 | 10/15 | 7/15 |
| Sogdiana | 1.6 | 1.5 | 3 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Pakhtakor sit 2nd in Super League (56 points from 26 matches) and Sogdiana sit 11th (30 points from 26 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Pakhtakor | 26 | 16 | 8 | 2 | 45 | 25 | 56 |
| 11 | Sogdiana | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 43 | 50 | 30 |
A question about Pakhtakor vs Sogdiana?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Pakhtakor vs Sogdiana?
- The Footlab AI model makes Pakhtakor the favourite at 55%, against 24% for a draw and 21% for Sogdiana.
- Where and when is Pakhtakor vs Sogdiana played?
- Pakhtakor vs Sogdiana is played on December 2, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Paxtakor Markaziy Stadion, in the Super League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.