Matagalpa vs Rancho Santana: prediction and stats
Primera DivisionApertura - 7Kick-off on August 30, 2026 at 01:00 AM (UTC)Estadio Carlos Fonseca Amador, Matagalpa
The Footlab model makes Matagalpa the favourite at 63%, against 20% for a draw and 16% for Rancho Santana. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Matagalpa vs Rancho Santana?
Matagalpa starts as the favourite with a 179-point Elo edge (1,468 vs 1,289).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Matagalpa have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; Rancho Santana have 2, 1 and 12.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Jalapa(away) | 1-0 | Primera Division |
| Aug 16, 2026 | San Marcos(home) | 1-0 | Primera Division |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Managua(home) | 0-3 | Primera Division |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Walter Ferretti(away) | 1-4 | Primera Division |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Real Estelí(away) | 0-2 | Primera Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | San Marcos(home) | 1-2 | Primera Division |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Walter Ferretti(home) | 1-3 | Primera Division |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Diriangén(away) | 1-2 | Primera Division |
| Aug 1, 2026 | H&H Export(home) | 0-1 | Primera Division |
| Jul 28, 2026 | UNAN Managua(away) | 0-2 | Primera Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Matagalpa win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Rancho Santana win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2026 | Rancho Santana 2-8 Matagalpa | Primera Division |
| Jan 24, 2026 | Matagalpa 0-2 Rancho Santana | Primera Division |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Matagalpa 1-4 Rancho Santana | Primera Division |
| Jul 22, 2025 | Rancho Santana 1-2 Matagalpa | Primera Division |
| Mar 23, 2025 | Rancho Santana 1-1 Matagalpa | Primera Division |
| Feb 26, 2025 | Matagalpa 2-1 Rancho Santana | Primera Division |
Last archived meeting: Rancho Santana vs Matagalpa on Mar 1, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Matagalpa score 1.3 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Rancho Santana score 0.8 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matagalpa | 1.3 | 1.7 | 4 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Rancho Santana | 0.8 | 1.9 | 3 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Matagalpa sit 7th in Primera Division (6 points from 6 matches) and Rancho Santana sit 10th (0 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Matagalpa | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 6 |
| 10 | Rancho Santana | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Matagalpa vs Rancho Santana?
- The Footlab model makes Matagalpa the favourite at 63%, against 20% for a draw and 16% for Rancho Santana.
- Where and when is Matagalpa vs Rancho Santana played?
- Matagalpa vs Rancho Santana is played on August 30, 2026 at 01:00 AM (UTC) at Estadio Carlos Fonseca Amador, in the Primera Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.