Mathare United vs Homeboyz: prediction and stats
FKF Premier LeagueRegular Season - 8Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Moi International Sports Centre, Nairobi
The Footlab AI model makes Homeboyz the favourite at 40%, against 31% for a draw and 29% for Mathare United. The most likely score is 1-1. If Homeboyz wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.5% of the 2,583 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 17, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mathare United vs Homeboyz?
A very open match: only 88 Elo points separate Mathare United (1,458) and Homeboyz (1,546).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Mathare United vs Homeboyz
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Mathare United
Not enough data to predict the Mathare United lineup.
Homeboyz
Not enough data to predict the Homeboyz lineup.
Computed on October 17, 2026 at 08:45 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mathare United have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Homeboyz have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | KCB(away) | 0-1 | FKF Premier League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | APS Bomet(home) | 0-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 31, 2026 | Bandari(home) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 23, 2026 | Ulinzi Stars(away) | 1-2 | FKF Premier League |
| May 16, 2026 | Mara Sugar(away) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | Mombasa Elite(away) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 31, 2026 | Police(away) | 1-1 | FKF Premier League |
| May 23, 2026 | Kariobangi Sharks(away) | 2-2 | FKF Premier League |
| May 16, 2026 | AFC Leopards(home) | 1-2 | FKF Premier League |
| May 10, 2026 | Murang'a SEAL(away) | 0-1 | FKF Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Mathare United win, 1 draw, 4 Homeboyz wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2026 | Homeboyz 3-0 Mathare United | FKF Premier League |
| Nov 15, 2025 | Mathare United 2-0 Homeboyz | FKF Premier League |
| May 10, 2025 | Mathare United 0-1 Homeboyz | FKF Premier League |
| Sep 15, 2024 | Homeboyz 0-0 Mathare United | FKF Premier League |
| Jun 4, 2023 | Homeboyz 1-0 Mathare United | FKF Premier League |
| Jan 28, 2023 | Mathare United 1-5 Homeboyz | FKF Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Homeboyz vs Mathare United on Apr 4, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Mathare United score 1.0 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Homeboyz score 1.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 35% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mathare United | 1.0 | 1.1 | 5 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Homeboyz | 1.1 | 1.1 | 3 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mathare United sit 11th in FKF Premier League (1 point from 1 match) and Homeboyz sit 3rd (3 points from 1 match).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Homeboyz | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 11 | Mathare United | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
A question about Mathare United vs Homeboyz?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mathare United vs Homeboyz?
- The Footlab AI model makes Homeboyz the favourite at 40%, against 31% for a draw and 29% for Mathare United.
- Where and when is Mathare United vs Homeboyz played?
- Mathare United vs Homeboyz is played on October 24, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Moi International Sports Centre, in the FKF Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 35% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.5% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.