Fukushima United vs Matsumoto Yamaga: prediction and stats
J3 LeagueRegular Season - 14Kick-off on October 31, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)TOHO Stadium, Fukushima
The Footlab model makes Matsumoto Yamaga the favourite at 42%, against 25% for a draw and 33% for Fukushima United. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Fukushima United vs Matsumoto Yamaga?
A very open match: only 28 Elo points separate Fukushima United (1,673) and Matsumoto Yamaga (1,701).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Fukushima United have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Matsumoto Yamaga have 4, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Yokohama F. Marinos(away) | 0-1 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Gainare Tottori(away) | 1-2 | J3 League |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Oyama(home) | 7-0 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Kanazawa(away) | 3-4 | J3 League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Kamatamare Sanuki(home) | 1-2 | J3 League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ehime FC(home) | 2-2 | J3 League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Biwako Shiga(home) | 2-3 | J3 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Kochi United(away) | 0-0 | J3 League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Ventforet Kofu(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Nara Club(home) | 0-2 | J2/J3 League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Fukushima United win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Matsumoto Yamaga win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | Matsumoto Yamaga 3-3 Fukushima United | J2/J3 League |
| Mar 29, 2026 | Fukushima United 1-3 Matsumoto Yamaga | J2/J3 League |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Fukushima United 1-0 Matsumoto Yamaga | J3 League |
| Jun 7, 2025 | Matsumoto Yamaga 1-2 Fukushima United | J3 League |
| Dec 1, 2024 | Matsumoto Yamaga 1-1 Fukushima United | J3 League |
| Jul 27, 2024 | Matsumoto Yamaga 1-1 Fukushima United | J3 League |
Last archived meeting: Matsumoto Yamaga vs Fukushima United on May 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Fukushima United score 1.8 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Matsumoto Yamaga score 1.5 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fukushima United | 1.8 | 1.7 | 2 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Matsumoto Yamaga | 1.5 | 1.2 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Fukushima United sit 19th in J3 League (0 points from 3 matches) and Matsumoto Yamaga sit 16th (2 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Matsumoto Yamaga | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 2 |
| 19 | Fukushima United | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Fukushima United vs Matsumoto Yamaga?
- The Footlab model makes Matsumoto Yamaga the favourite at 42%, against 25% for a draw and 33% for Fukushima United.
- Where and when is Fukushima United vs Matsumoto Yamaga played?
- Fukushima United vs Matsumoto Yamaga is played on October 31, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at TOHO Stadium, in the J3 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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