Polisi Tanzania vs Fountain Gate: prediction and stats
Ligi kuu BaraRegular Season - 25Kick-off on March 12, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Jamhuri Stadium Morogoro, Morogoro
The Footlab model makes Polisi Tanzania the favourite at 60%, against 25% for a draw and 15% for Fountain Gate. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Polisi Tanzania vs Fountain Gate?
A very open match: only 7 Elo points separate Polisi Tanzania (1,490) and Fountain Gate (1,483).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Polisi Tanzania have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Fountain Gate have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Dodoma Jiji(away) | 1-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 20, 2026 | JKT Tanzania(home) | 2-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Azam(home) | 1-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Tanzania Prisons(away) | 0-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 9, 2023 | Azam(away) | 0-8 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Namungo(away) | 0-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Mashujaa(home) | 1-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Singida Black Stars(away) | 0-3 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Singida Black Stars(home) | 4-3 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Namungo(away) | 0-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Polisi Tanzania win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Fountain Gate win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 7, 2023 | Fountain Gate 3-0 Polisi Tanzania | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Nov 6, 2022 | Polisi Tanzania 0-1 Fountain Gate | Ligi kuu Bara |
Last archived meeting: Fountain Gate vs Polisi Tanzania on Apr 7, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Polisi Tanzania score 1.0 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Fountain Gate score 1.2 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polisi Tanzania | 1.0 | 1.7 | 5 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Fountain Gate | 1.2 | 1.5 | 2 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Polisi Tanzania sit 3rd in Ligi kuu Bara (7 points from 3 matches) and Fountain Gate sit 10th (3 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Polisi Tanzania | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 10 | Fountain Gate | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Polisi Tanzania vs Fountain Gate?
- The Footlab model makes Polisi Tanzania the favourite at 60%, against 25% for a draw and 15% for Fountain Gate.
- Where and when is Polisi Tanzania vs Fountain Gate played?
- Polisi Tanzania vs Fountain Gate is played on March 12, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Jamhuri Stadium Morogoro, in the Ligi kuu Bara.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.