Polisi Tanzania vs Kagera Sugar: prediction and stats
Ligi kuu BaraRegular Season - 23Kick-off on February 27, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Jamhuri Stadium Morogoro, Morogoro
The Footlab model makes Polisi Tanzania the favourite at 65%, against 22% for a draw and 13% for Kagera Sugar. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Polisi Tanzania vs Kagera Sugar?
A very open match: only 43 Elo points separate Polisi Tanzania (1,490) and Kagera Sugar (1,448).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Polisi Tanzania have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Kagera Sugar have 3, 3 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | JKT Tanzania(home) | 2-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Azam(home) | 1-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Tanzania Prisons(away) | 0-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 9, 2023 | Azam(away) | 0-8 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 6, 2023 | Simba(away) | 1-6 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Geita Gold(away) | 2-6 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Singida Black Stars(home) | 1-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Simba(home) | 0-2 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 22, 2025 | Simba(away) | 0-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 18, 2025 | Namungo(away) | 0-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Polisi Tanzania win(s), 4 draw(s), 2 Kagera Sugar win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 6, 2023 | Polisi Tanzania 0-0 Kagera Sugar | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Oct 8, 2022 | Kagera Sugar 2-0 Polisi Tanzania | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 29, 2022 | Kagera Sugar 0-0 Polisi Tanzania | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Feb 19, 2022 | Polisi Tanzania 0-0 Kagera Sugar | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jul 15, 2021 | Polisi Tanzania 0-1 Kagera Sugar | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Dec 22, 2020 | Kagera Sugar 2-2 Polisi Tanzania | Ligi kuu Bara |
Last archived meeting: Polisi Tanzania vs Kagera Sugar on Feb 6, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Polisi Tanzania score 0.9 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Kagera Sugar score 0.8 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polisi Tanzania | 0.9 | 1.7 | 5 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Kagera Sugar | 0.8 | 1.5 | 3 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Polisi Tanzania sit 7th in Ligi kuu Bara (4 points from 2 matches) and Kagera Sugar sit 15th (1 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Polisi Tanzania | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 15 | Kagera Sugar | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Polisi Tanzania vs Kagera Sugar?
- The Footlab model makes Polisi Tanzania the favourite at 65%, against 22% for a draw and 13% for Kagera Sugar.
- Where and when is Polisi Tanzania vs Kagera Sugar played?
- Polisi Tanzania vs Kagera Sugar is played on February 27, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Jamhuri Stadium Morogoro, in the Ligi kuu Bara.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.