Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory: prediction and stats
A-LeagueRegular Season - 9Kick-off on December 19, 2026 at 08:40 AM (UTC)AAMI Park, Melbourne
The Footlab AI model makes Melbourne Victory the favourite at 40%, against 26% for a draw and 34% for Melbourne City. The most likely score is 1-1. If Melbourne Victory wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 4,598 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 5, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory?
A very open match: only 16 Elo points separate Melbourne City (1,798) and Melbourne Victory (1,814).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Melbourne City
4-2-3-1- 15A. Nabbout
- 14Besian Kutleshi
- 24Kavian Rahmani
- 23M. Memeti
- 11A. Mabil
- 19Q. Macnicol
- 13N. Atkinson
- 2H. Delbridge
- 16A. Behich
- 4L. Bonetig
- 40J. Nieuwenhuizen
Melbourne Victory
4-2-3-1- 44C. Nduka
- 23K. Jelacic
- 21G. May
- 8J. Valadon
- 10D. Genreau
- 11Clarismario Rodrigues
- 3J. Davidson
- 36H. Shillington
- 4P. Ziereis
- 18F. Lino
- 25J. Duncan
Computed on November 5, 2026 at 09:47 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Melbourne City have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Melbourne Victory have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Sydney(home) | 2-1 | A-League |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Melbourne Victory(away) | 1-1 | A-League |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Auckland(away) | 1-3 | A-League |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Lions(away) | 0-2 | Australia Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Palermo(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2026 | Persib Bandung(home) | 1-2 | AFC Champions League Two |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Central Coast Mariners(home) | 1-1 | A-League |
| Oct 28, 2026 | Persib Bandung(away) | 0-2 | AFC Champions League Two |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Melbourne City(home) | 1-1 | A-League |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Wellington Phoenix(away) | 1-2 | A-League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Melbourne City wins, 2 draws, 2 Melbourne Victory wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2026 | Melbourne Victory 1-1 Melbourne City | A-League |
| Feb 21, 2026 | Melbourne City 1-3 Melbourne Victory | A-League |
| Dec 20, 2025 | Melbourne City 0-1 Melbourne Victory | A-League |
| Nov 8, 2025 | Melbourne Victory 0-2 Melbourne City | A-League |
| May 31, 2025 | Melbourne City 1-0 Melbourne Victory | A-League |
| Feb 22, 2025 | Melbourne Victory 2-2 Melbourne City | A-League |
Last archived meeting: Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City on Oct 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Melbourne City score 1.4 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Melbourne Victory score 1.4 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melbourne City | 1.4 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Melbourne Victory | 1.4 | 0.9 | 5 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Melbourne City sit 7th in A-League (4 points from 3 matches) and Melbourne Victory sit 9th (2 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Melbourne City | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
| 9 | Melbourne Victory | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
A question about Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory?
- The Footlab AI model makes Melbourne Victory the favourite at 40%, against 26% for a draw and 34% for Melbourne City.
- Where and when is Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory played?
- Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory is played on December 19, 2026 at 08:40 AM (UTC) at AAMI Park, in the A-League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.