Macarthur vs Central Coast Mariners: prediction and stats
A-LeagueRegular Season - 9Kick-off on December 21, 2026 at 08:00 AM (UTC)Campbelltown Sports Stadium, Sydney
The Footlab model makes Macarthur the favourite at 57%, against 22% for a draw and 21% for Central Coast Mariners. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Macarthur vs Central Coast Mariners?
A very open match: only 50 Elo points separate Macarthur (1,809) and Central Coast Mariners (1,759).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Macarthur have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Central Coast Mariners have 5, 7 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 2026 | SD Raiders(away) | 1-1 | Australia Cup |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Uni Azzurri(away) | 3-0 | Australia Cup |
| Apr 24, 2026 | Wellington Phoenix(home) | 4-0 | A-League |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Adelaide United(away) | 1-3 | A-League |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Perth Glory(away) | 1-3 | A-League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 22, 2026 | Sydney United(away) | 1-1 | Australia Cup |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Newcastle Jets(away) | 0-4 | A-League |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Auckland(away) | 1-0 | A-League |
| Apr 10, 2026 | Brisbane Roar(home) | 2-2 | A-League |
| Apr 7, 2026 | Melbourne City(away) | 1-2 | A-League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Macarthur win(s), 3 draw(s), 3 Central Coast Mariners win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2026 | Macarthur 1-3 Central Coast Mariners | A-League |
| Jan 18, 2026 | Central Coast Mariners 1-1 Macarthur | A-League |
| Apr 20, 2025 | Central Coast Mariners 2-2 Macarthur | A-League |
| Dec 23, 2024 | Macarthur 1-1 Central Coast Mariners | A-League |
| Mar 10, 2024 | Macarthur 0-3 Central Coast Mariners | A-League |
| Feb 22, 2024 | Macarthur 2-3 Central Coast Mariners | AFC Champions League Two |
Last archived meeting: Macarthur vs Central Coast Mariners on Mar 4, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Macarthur score 1.5 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Central Coast Mariners score 1.4 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macarthur | 1.5 | 1.9 | 2 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
| Central Coast Mariners | 1.4 | 1.5 | 3 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Macarthur sit 7th in A-League (34 points from 26 matches) and Central Coast Mariners sit 9th (32 points from 26 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Macarthur | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 37 | 44 | 34 |
| 9 | Central Coast Mariners | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 35 | 42 | 32 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Macarthur vs Central Coast Mariners?
- The Footlab model makes Macarthur the favourite at 57%, against 22% for a draw and 21% for Central Coast Mariners.
- Where and when is Macarthur vs Central Coast Mariners played?
- Macarthur vs Central Coast Mariners is played on December 21, 2026 at 08:00 AM (UTC) at Campbelltown Sports Stadium, in the A-League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.