Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City: prediction and stats
A-LeagueRegular Season - 20Kick-off on March 6, 2027 at 08:40 AM (UTC)AAMI Park, Melbourne
The Footlab AI model makes Melbourne Victory the favourite at 47%, against 25% for a draw and 28% for Melbourne City. The most likely score is 1-1. If Melbourne Victory wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 4,461 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 4, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City?
A very open match: only 22 Elo points separate Melbourne Victory (1,843) and Melbourne City (1,821).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Melbourne Victory
4-2-3-1- 44C. Nduka
- 8J. Valadon
- 23K. Jelacic
- 21G. May
- 11Clarismario Rodrigues
- 10D. Genreau
- 3J. Davidson
- 36H. Shillington
- 18F. Lino
- 15T. Lockyer
- 25J. Duncan
Melbourne City
4-2-3-1- 15A. Nabbout
- 14Besian Kutleshi
- 24Kavian Rahmani
- 23M. Memeti
- 11A. Mabil
- 19Q. Macnicol
- 13N. Atkinson
- 2H. Delbridge
- 16A. Behich
- 4L. Bonetig
- 40J. Nieuwenhuizen
Computed on November 4, 2026 at 02:35 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Melbourne Victory have 5 wins, 7 draws and 3 defeats; Melbourne City have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | Central Coast Mariners(home) | 1-1 | A-League |
| Oct 28, 2026 | Persib Bandung(away) | 0-2 | AFC Champions League Two |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Melbourne City(home) | 1-1 | A-League |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Wellington Phoenix(away) | 1-2 | A-League |
| Oct 14, 2026 | FC Seoul(home) | 3-0 | AFC Champions League Two |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Sydney(home) | 2-1 | A-League |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Melbourne Victory(away) | 1-1 | A-League |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Auckland(away) | 1-3 | A-League |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Lions(away) | 0-2 | Australia Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Palermo(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Melbourne Victory wins, 2 draws, 2 Melbourne City wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2026 | Melbourne Victory 1-1 Melbourne City | A-League |
| Feb 21, 2026 | Melbourne City 1-3 Melbourne Victory | A-League |
| Dec 20, 2025 | Melbourne City 0-1 Melbourne Victory | A-League |
| Nov 8, 2025 | Melbourne Victory 0-2 Melbourne City | A-League |
| May 31, 2025 | Melbourne City 1-0 Melbourne Victory | A-League |
| Feb 22, 2025 | Melbourne Victory 2-2 Melbourne City | A-League |
Last archived meeting: Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City on Oct 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Melbourne Victory score 1.5 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Melbourne City score 1.4 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melbourne Victory | 1.5 | 0.9 | 5 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
| Melbourne City | 1.4 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Melbourne Victory sit 9th in A-League (2 points from 3 matches) and Melbourne City sit 7th (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Melbourne City | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
| 9 | Melbourne Victory | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
A question about Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City?
- The Footlab AI model makes Melbourne Victory the favourite at 47%, against 25% for a draw and 28% for Melbourne City.
- Where and when is Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City played?
- Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City is played on March 6, 2027 at 08:40 AM (UTC) at AAMI Park, in the A-League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.