Wellington Phoenix vs Sydney: prediction and stats
A-LeagueRegular Season - 20Kick-off on March 6, 2027 at 04:00 AM (UTC)Sky Stadium, Wellington
The Footlab AI model makes Sydney the favourite at 46%, against 25% for a draw and 29% for Wellington Phoenix. The most likely score is 1-1. If Sydney wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,495 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Wellington Phoenix vs Sydney?
Sydney starts as the favourite with a 202-point Elo edge (1,902 vs 1,700).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Wellington Phoenix vs Sydney
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Wellington Phoenix
4-4-2- 7I. Eze
- 3C. Piper
- 25K. Nagasawa
- 8P. Retre
- 20R. Najjarine
- 14A. Rufer
- 28B. Tuiloma
- 15I. Hughes
- 6T. Payne
- 18L. Kelly-Heald
- 1J. Oluwayemi
Sydney
4-2-3-1- 9O. Sunday
- 20T. Quintal
- 14T. Sekine
- 15J. Hollman
- 36R. Youlley
- 35A. Toure
- 23R. Grant
- 17B. Garuccio
- 4J. Courtney-Perkins
- 41A. Popovic
- 12Harrison Devenish-Meares
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 11:10 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Wellington Phoenix have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Sydney have 5, 7 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2026 | Macarthur(away) | 0-4 | A-League |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Western Sydney Wanderers(home) | 2-1 | A-League |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Melbourne City(away) | 0-2 | A-League |
| Apr 5, 2026 | Melbourne Victory(away) | 1-0 | A-League |
| Mar 21, 2026 | Brisbane Roar(away) | 2-1 | A-League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Western Sydney Wanderers(home) | 0-0 | A-League |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Melbourne Victory(home) | 0-2 | Australia Cup |
| Aug 18, 2026 | SD Raiders(away) | 1-0 | Australia Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Brisbane Roar(away) | 4-2 | Australia Cup |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Tottenham(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Wellington Phoenix wins, 2 draws, 2 Sydney wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2026 | Wellington Phoenix 0-1 Sydney | A-League |
| Jan 18, 2026 | Sydney 0-2 Wellington Phoenix | A-League |
| Mar 16, 2025 | Sydney 1-1 Wellington Phoenix | A-League |
| Jan 15, 2025 | Wellington Phoenix 0-0 Sydney | A-League |
| Mar 16, 2024 | Wellington Phoenix 2-1 Sydney | A-League |
| Dec 29, 2023 | Sydney 3-1 Wellington Phoenix | A-League |
Last archived meeting: Wellington Phoenix vs Sydney on Mar 1, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Wellington Phoenix score 1.3 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Sydney score 1.3 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wellington Phoenix | 1.3 | 1.9 | 3 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Sydney | 1.3 | 0.9 | 6 | 7/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Wellington Phoenix sit 8th in A-League (33 points from 26 matches) and Sydney sit 5th (39 points from 26 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Sydney | 26 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 33 | 25 | 39 |
| 8 | Wellington Phoenix | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 36 | 48 | 33 |
A question about Wellington Phoenix vs Sydney?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Wellington Phoenix vs Sydney?
- The Footlab AI model makes Sydney the favourite at 46%, against 25% for a draw and 29% for Wellington Phoenix.
- Where and when is Wellington Phoenix vs Sydney played?
- Wellington Phoenix vs Sydney is played on March 6, 2027 at 04:00 AM (UTC) at Sky Stadium, in the A-League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.