Where and when is Mensajero vs Unión Sur Yaiza played?

Mensajero vs Unión Sur Yaiza is played on December 6, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Silvestre Carrillo, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 12.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Mensajero vs Unión Sur Yaiza: prediction and stats

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Group 12 - 14Kick-off on December 6, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Silvestre Carrillo, Santa Cruz de la Palma (La Palma)

Mensajero

Unión Sur Yaiza

The Footlab model makes Mensajero the favourite at 69%, against 22% for a draw and 9% for Unión Sur Yaiza. The most likely score is 1-0.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Mensajero vs Unión Sur Yaiza?

Mensajero starts as the favourite with a 144-point Elo edge (1,859 vs 1,715).

Mensajero win69 %

Draw22 %

Unión Sur Yaiza win9 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mensajero have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Unión Sur Yaiza have 5, 4 and 6.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Mensajero
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 24, 2026	Tamaraceite(home)	1-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
May 16, 2026	Tamaraceite(away)	0-2	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
May 10, 2026	UD San Fernando(home)	1-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
May 3, 2026	Arucas(away)	1-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
Apr 26, 2026	Villa Santa Brígida(home)	2-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12

Unión Sur Yaiza
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 10, 2026	Panadería Pulido(away)	0-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
May 3, 2026	Telde(home)	2-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
Apr 26, 2026	Marino(away)	0-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
Apr 22, 2026	Arucas(home)	3-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
Apr 19, 2026	Mensajero(home)	1-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Mensajero win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Unión Sur Yaiza win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Apr 19, 2026	Unión Sur Yaiza 1-0 Mensajero	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
Jan 14, 2026	Mensajero 3-0 Unión Sur Yaiza	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
Apr 23, 2023	Unión Sur Yaiza 3-2 Mensajero	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
Jan 8, 2023	Mensajero 3-0 Unión Sur Yaiza	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12

Last archived meeting: Unión Sur Yaiza vs Mensajero on Apr 19, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Mensajero score 1.3 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Unión Sur Yaiza score 1.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Mensajero	1.3	0.9	7	6/15	5/15
Unión Sur Yaiza	1.1	1.1	7	4/15	8/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Mensajero sit 4th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 (63 points from 34 matches) and Unión Sur Yaiza sit 13th (38 points from 34 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
4	Mensajero	34	18	9	7	51	31	63
13	Unión Sur Yaiza	34	10	8	16	33	43	38

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Mensajero vs Unión Sur Yaiza?: The Footlab model makes Mensajero the favourite at 69%, against 22% for a draw and 9% for Unión Sur Yaiza.
Where and when is Mensajero vs Unión Sur Yaiza played?: Mensajero vs Unión Sur Yaiza is played on December 6, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Silvestre Carrillo, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 12.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.