Estrella vs Mensajero: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Group 12 - 15Kick-off on December 13, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Las Palmitas, Gran Canaria
The Footlab AI model makes Estrella the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 33% for Mensajero. The most likely score is 1-1. If Estrella wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 4,545 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 5, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Estrella vs Mensajero?
On Elo ratings, Estrella has 1,620 points and Mensajero 1,819.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Estrella vs Mensajero
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Estrella
Not enough data to predict the Estrella lineup.
Mensajero
Not enough data to predict the Mensajero lineup.
Computed on November 5, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Estrella have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Mensajero have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Laguna de Duero(away) | 3-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Real Unión de Tenerife(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Oct 21, 2026 | San Miguel(away) | 0-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Marino(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Los Llanos(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Los Llanos(away) | 1-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Oct 25, 2026 | UD San Fernando(home) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Panadería Pulido(away) | 0-5 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Las Palmas III(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | San Bartolomé(home) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 0 Estrella wins, 0 draws, 4 Mensajero wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2025 | Mensajero 3-2 Estrella | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Nov 23, 2024 | Estrella 1-3 Mensajero | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Apr 16, 2023 | Mensajero 2-1 Estrella | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Dec 17, 2022 | Estrella 0-1 Mensajero | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
How many goals should we expect?
Estrella score 1.2 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Mensajero score 1.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estrella | 1.2 | 1.5 | 2 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Mensajero | 1.1 | 1.3 | 6 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Estrella sit 13th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 (10 points from 9 matches) and Mensajero sit 10th (12 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Mensajero | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 16 | 12 |
| 13 | Estrella | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 14 | 10 |
A question about Estrella vs Mensajero?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Estrella vs Mensajero?
- The Footlab AI model makes Estrella the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 33% for Mensajero.
- Where and when is Estrella vs Mensajero played?
- Estrella vs Mensajero is played on December 13, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Las Palmitas, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 12.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Dec 13, 2026LanzarotevsVilla Santa Brígida
- Dec 13, 2026MarinovsSan Bartolomé
- Dec 13, 2026Panadería PulidovsSan Fernando CD
- Dec 13, 2026Unión Sur YaizavsTenerife C
- Dec 13, 2026Real Unión de TenerifevsVillaverde Norte
- Dec 13, 2026Laguna de DuerovsSan Miguel
- Dec 13, 2026Los LlanosvsLas Palmas III
- Dec 13, 2026Playas SotaventovsAnaza