Where and when is Estrella vs Mensajero played?

Estrella vs Mensajero is played on December 13, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Las Palmitas, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 12.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Estrella vs Mensajero: prediction and stats

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Group 12 - 15Kick-off on December 13, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Las Palmitas, Gran Canaria

Estrella

Mensajero

The Footlab model makes Mensajero the favourite at 39%, against 30% for a draw and 31% for Estrella. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Estrella vs Mensajero?

Mensajero starts as the favourite with a 257-point Elo edge (1,855 vs 1,598).

Estrella win31 %

Draw30 %

Mensajero win39 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Estrella have 4 wins, 7 draws and 4 defeats; Mensajero have 9, 2 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Estrella
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 11, 2025	Herbania(home)	2-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
May 4, 2025	San Bartolomé(away)	0-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
Apr 26, 2025	Santa Úrsula(home)	1-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
Apr 17, 2025	Buzanada(away)	1-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
Apr 12, 2025	Marino(home)	2-2	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12

Mensajero
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 24, 2026	Tamaraceite(home)	1-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
May 16, 2026	Tamaraceite(away)	0-2	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
May 10, 2026	UD San Fernando(home)	1-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
May 3, 2026	Arucas(away)	1-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
Apr 26, 2026	Villa Santa Brígida(home)	2-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 4 meetings: 0 Estrella win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Mensajero win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Apr 6, 2025	Mensajero 3-2 Estrella	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
Nov 23, 2024	Estrella 1-3 Mensajero	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
Apr 16, 2023	Mensajero 2-1 Estrella	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
Dec 17, 2022	Estrella 0-1 Mensajero	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12

Last archived meeting: Mensajero vs Estrella on Apr 6, 2025

How many goals should we expect?

Estrella score 0.9 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Mensajero score 1.3 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Estrella	0.9	1.0	5	7/15	4/15
Mensajero	1.3	0.9	7	6/15	5/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
4	Mensajero	34	18	9	7	51	31	63

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Estrella vs Mensajero?: The Footlab model makes Mensajero the favourite at 39%, against 30% for a draw and 31% for Estrella.
Where and when is Estrella vs Mensajero played?: Estrella vs Mensajero is played on December 13, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Las Palmitas, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 12.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.