Mensajero vs Villa Santa Brígida: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Group 12 - 34Kick-off on May 9, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Silvestre Carrillo, Santa Cruz de la Palma (La Palma)
The Footlab model makes Mensajero the favourite at 57%, against 26% for a draw and 17% for Villa Santa Brígida. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mensajero vs Villa Santa Brígida?
Mensajero starts as the favourite with a 101-point Elo edge (1,859 vs 1,758).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mensajero have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Villa Santa Brígida have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | Tamaraceite(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| May 16, 2026 | Tamaraceite(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| May 10, 2026 | UD San Fernando(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| May 3, 2026 | Arucas(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Villa Santa Brígida(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 8, 2026 | Telde(away) | 3-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| May 1, 2026 | Marino(home) | 3-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Mensajero(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Tenerife C(home) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | San Bartolomé(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Mensajero win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Villa Santa Brígida win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2026 | Mensajero 2-0 Villa Santa Brígida | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Dec 20, 2025 | Villa Santa Brígida 1-0 Mensajero | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| May 11, 2025 | Villa Santa Brígida 1-0 Mensajero | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Jan 11, 2025 | Mensajero 5-1 Villa Santa Brígida | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Feb 19, 2023 | Mensajero 2-0 Villa Santa Brígida | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Oct 15, 2022 | Villa Santa Brígida 1-0 Mensajero | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
Last archived meeting: Mensajero vs Villa Santa Brígida on Apr 26, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Mensajero score 1.3 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Villa Santa Brígida score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mensajero | 1.3 | 0.9 | 7 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Villa Santa Brígida | 1.3 | 1.1 | 4 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mensajero sit 4th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 (63 points from 34 matches) and Villa Santa Brígida sit 8th (50 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Mensajero | 34 | 18 | 9 | 7 | 51 | 31 | 63 |
| 8 | Villa Santa Brígida | 34 | 15 | 5 | 14 | 42 | 35 | 50 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mensajero vs Villa Santa Brígida?
- The Footlab model makes Mensajero the favourite at 57%, against 26% for a draw and 17% for Villa Santa Brígida.
- Where and when is Mensajero vs Villa Santa Brígida played?
- Mensajero vs Villa Santa Brígida is played on May 9, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Silvestre Carrillo, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 12.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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