Where and when is Mercedes vs Lugano played?

Mercedes vs Lugano is played on October 10, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Liga Mercedes, in the Primera C.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 27% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Mercedes vs Lugano: prediction and stats

Primera CRegular Season - 32Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Liga Mercedes, Mercedes, Provincia de Buenos Aires

Mercedes

Lugano

The Footlab model makes Mercedes the favourite at 45%, against 33% for a draw and 22% for Lugano. The most likely score is 1-0.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Mercedes vs Lugano?

A very open match: only 20 Elo points separate Mercedes (1,585) and Lugano (1,565).

Mercedes win45 %

Draw33 %

Lugano win22 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mercedes have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Lugano have 7, 5 and 3.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Mercedes
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Sacachispas(home)	2-0	Primera C
Aug 18, 2026	Claypole(away)	0-1	Primera C
Aug 8, 2026	Argentino Rosario(away)	0-2	Primera C
Jul 31, 2026	Estrella Del Sur(home)	1-1	Primera C
Jul 25, 2026	Berazategui(away)	1-0	Primera C

Lugano
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Leandro N. Alem(away)	1-0	Primera C
Aug 16, 2026	Lujan(home)	1-2	Primera C
Aug 9, 2026	Victoriano Arenas(home)	0-0	Primera C
Jul 31, 2026	Defensores de Cambaceres(away)	2-1	Primera C
Jul 25, 2026	Centro Español(home)	1-0	Primera C

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Mercedes win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Lugano win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Jun 14, 2026	Lugano 1-0 Mercedes	Primera C
Aug 17, 2025	Lugano 0-1 Mercedes	Primera C
May 2, 2025	Mercedes 1-1 Lugano	Primera C
Oct 26, 2024	Mercedes 2-2 Lugano	Primera C
May 27, 2024	Lugano 0-0 Mercedes	Primera C
Oct 9, 2023	Mercedes 2-1 Lugano	Primera D

Last archived meeting: Lugano vs Mercedes on Jun 14, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Mercedes score 1.3 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Lugano score 1.2 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 27% probability of over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Mercedes	1.3	0.7	7	4/15	3/15
Lugano	1.2	0.8	9	6/15	7/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Mercedes sit 6th in Primera C (36 points from 25 matches) and Lugano sit 2nd (39 points from 25 matches).

2026 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
2	Lugano	25	10	9	6	29	22	39
6	Mercedes	25	9	9	7	25	15	36

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Mercedes vs Lugano?: The Footlab model makes Mercedes the favourite at 45%, against 33% for a draw and 22% for Lugano.
Where and when is Mercedes vs Lugano played?: Mercedes vs Lugano is played on October 10, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Liga Mercedes, in the Primera C.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 27% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.