Merelbeke vs Dessel Sport: prediction and stats
First Amateur DivisionVV - 5Kick-off on September 27, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Sportpark Molenkouter, Merelbeke
The Footlab model makes Merelbeke the favourite at 39%, against 22% for a draw and 39% for Dessel Sport. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Merelbeke vs Dessel Sport?
A very open match: only 41 Elo points separate Merelbeke (1,778) and Dessel Sport (1,819).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Merelbeke have 5 wins, 1 draws and 9 defeats; Dessel Sport have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | K. Lierse S.K.(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Gent(home) | 1-6 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Ninove(away) | 1-3 | First Amateur Division |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Roeselare Daisel(home) | 1-3 | First Amateur Division |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Houtvenne(home) | 2-1 | First Amateur Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2026 | Sporting Hasselt(away) | 0-1 | First Amateur Division |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Cercle Brugge II(home) | 2-2 | First Amateur Division |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Tienen(away) | 3-1 | First Amateur Division |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Zelzate(home) | 3-1 | First Amateur Division |
| Mar 21, 2026 | Knokke(home) | 4-3 | First Amateur Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 0 Merelbeke win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Dessel Sport win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | Dessel Sport 2-1 Merelbeke | First Amateur Division |
| Nov 22, 2025 | Merelbeke 1-1 Dessel Sport | First Amateur Division |
| Jan 25, 2025 | Merelbeke 1-5 Dessel Sport | First Amateur Division |
| Nov 9, 2024 | Dessel Sport 3-1 Merelbeke | First Amateur Division |
| Aug 24, 2024 | Merelbeke 0-2 Dessel Sport | Cup |
Last archived meeting: Dessel Sport vs Merelbeke on Jan 31, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Merelbeke score 1.4 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Dessel Sport score 1.9 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 73% probability of over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merelbeke | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
| Dessel Sport | 1.9 | 2.1 | 0 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Merelbeke sit 14th in First Amateur Division (11 points from 12 matches) and Dessel Sport sit 7th (16 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Dessel Sport | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 23 | 21 | 16 |
| 14 | Merelbeke | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 22 | 11 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Merelbeke vs Dessel Sport?
- The Footlab model makes Merelbeke the favourite at 39%, against 22% for a draw and 39% for Dessel Sport.
- Where and when is Merelbeke vs Dessel Sport played?
- Merelbeke vs Dessel Sport is played on September 27, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Sportpark Molenkouter, in the First Amateur Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 73% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.