Merelbeke vs Harelbeke: prediction and stats
First Amateur DivisionVV - 4Kick-off on September 20, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Sportpark Molenkouter, Merelbeke
The Footlab model makes Harelbeke the favourite at 42%, against 24% for a draw and 34% for Merelbeke. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Merelbeke vs Harelbeke?
A very open match: only 73 Elo points separate Merelbeke (1,778) and Harelbeke (1,851).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Merelbeke have 5 wins, 1 draws and 9 defeats; Harelbeke have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | K. Lierse S.K.(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Gent(home) | 1-6 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Ninove(away) | 1-3 | First Amateur Division |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Roeselare Daisel(home) | 1-3 | First Amateur Division |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Houtvenne(home) | 2-1 | First Amateur Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Albert Quévy-Mons(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Kortrijk(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 14, 2026 | Londerzeel(away) | 0-0 | Second Amateur Division - Play-offs |
| May 10, 2026 | Zulte Waregem II(home) | 3-0 | Second Amateur Division - Play-offs |
| May 3, 2026 | Diksmuide(away) | 2-1 | Second Amateur Division - Play-offs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Merelbeke win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Harelbeke win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2024 | Merelbeke 4-0 Harelbeke | Second Amateur Division - VFV A |
| Nov 12, 2023 | Harelbeke 2-0 Merelbeke | Second Amateur Division - VFV A |
| Apr 1, 2023 | Harelbeke 0-2 Merelbeke | Second Amateur Division - VFV A |
| Oct 2, 2022 | Merelbeke 1-1 Harelbeke | Second Amateur Division - VFV A |
| May 1, 2022 | Merelbeke 3-2 Harelbeke | Second Amateur Division - VFV A |
| Dec 11, 2021 | Harelbeke 1-1 Merelbeke | Second Amateur Division - VFV A |
Last archived meeting: Merelbeke vs Harelbeke on Feb 25, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Merelbeke score 1.4 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Harelbeke score 1.6 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merelbeke | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
| Harelbeke | 1.6 | 1.0 | 4 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Merelbeke | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 22 | 11 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Merelbeke vs Harelbeke?
- The Footlab model makes Harelbeke the favourite at 42%, against 24% for a draw and 34% for Merelbeke.
- Where and when is Merelbeke vs Harelbeke played?
- Merelbeke vs Harelbeke is played on September 20, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Sportpark Molenkouter, in the First Amateur Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.