Mérida AD vs Pontevedra: prediction and stats
Primera División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 21Kick-off on January 24, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Romano, Mérida
The Footlab AI model makes Mérida AD the favourite at 53%, against 25% for a draw and 22% for Pontevedra. The most likely score is 1-1. If Mérida AD wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 4,521 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 5, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mérida AD vs Pontevedra?
On Elo ratings, Mérida AD has 1,899 points and Pontevedra 1,961.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Mérida AD vs Pontevedra
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Mérida AD
4-3-3- 24L. Koné
- 21Raúl Beneit
- 11S. El Ftouhi
- 6Jota
- 8Martín Solar
- 7J. Areso
- 4Gonzalez Nacho
- 5Hugo Sanz
- 14Hugo
- 20Barbu
- 1A. Csenterics
Pontevedra
4-3-3- 22A. Comparada Gonzalez
- 11Iñaki Elejalde
- 3P. Gaye
- 10Y. Pino
- 14L. Macias
- 6I. Ivorra
- 16A. Vidorreta
- 5A. Perez
- 20Rui Ferreira
- 15D. Alba
- 1Raúl Marqueta
Computed on November 5, 2026 at 09:14 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mérida AD have 6 wins, 1 draw and 8 defeats; Pontevedra have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | Lugo(away) | 1-2 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 25, 2026 | CD Coria(home) | 0-0 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Arenas Getxo(away) | 4-0 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Pontevedra(away) | 2-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Cacereño(home) | 2-0 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | Barakaldo(away) | 0-0 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 27, 2026 | Arosa(away) | 0-2 | Copa del Rey |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Cultural Leonesa(away) | 2-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Cacereño(home) | 1-0 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Mérida AD(home) | 1-2 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 3 Mérida AD wins, 2 draws, 0 Pontevedra wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Pontevedra 1-2 Mérida AD | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Jan 23, 2026 | Mérida AD 1-1 Pontevedra | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Nov 15, 2025 | Pontevedra 1-1 Mérida AD | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 15, 2023 | Pontevedra 1-5 Mérida AD | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 1, 2022 | Mérida AD 2-0 Pontevedra | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
Last archived meeting: Pontevedra vs Mérida AD on Oct 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Mérida AD score 1.3 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Pontevedra score 1.4 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mérida AD | 1.3 | 1.7 | 4 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
| Pontevedra | 1.4 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mérida AD sit 12th in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 (13 points from 10 matches) and Pontevedra sit 7th (15 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Pontevedra | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 11 | 15 |
| 12 | Mérida AD | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 14 | 13 |
A question about Mérida AD vs Pontevedra?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mérida AD vs Pontevedra?
- The Footlab AI model makes Mérida AD the favourite at 53%, against 25% for a draw and 22% for Pontevedra.
- Where and when is Mérida AD vs Pontevedra played?
- Mérida AD vs Pontevedra is played on January 24, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Romano, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.