Mérida AD vs Pontevedra: prediction and stats
Primera División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 21Kick-off on January 24, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Romano, Mérida
The Footlab model makes Pontevedra the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Mérida AD. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mérida AD vs Pontevedra?
Pontevedra starts as the favourite with a 115-point Elo edge (1,987 vs 1,872).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mérida AD have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Pontevedra have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Alcorcon(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Leganes(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Al-Nassr(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Benfica B(away) | 0-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 23, 2026 | Osasuna II(away) | 2-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Coruxo(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Ourense CF(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Estradense(away) | 5-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Arosa(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruña II(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Mérida AD win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Pontevedra win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2026 | Mérida AD 1-1 Pontevedra | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Nov 15, 2025 | Pontevedra 1-1 Mérida AD | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 15, 2023 | Pontevedra 1-5 Mérida AD | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 1, 2022 | Mérida AD 2-0 Pontevedra | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
Last archived meeting: Mérida AD vs Pontevedra on Jan 23, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Mérida AD score 0.9 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Pontevedra score 1.9 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mérida AD | 0.9 | 1.9 | 1 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Pontevedra | 1.9 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mérida AD sit 10th in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 (52 points from 38 matches) and Pontevedra sit 6th (58 points from 38 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Pontevedra | 38 | 14 | 16 | 8 | 49 | 31 | 58 |
| 10 | Mérida AD | 38 | 14 | 10 | 14 | 47 | 53 | 52 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mérida AD vs Pontevedra?
- The Footlab model makes Pontevedra the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Mérida AD.
- Where and when is Mérida AD vs Pontevedra played?
- Mérida AD vs Pontevedra is played on January 24, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Romano, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.