Match

Pontevedra vs Mérida AD: prediction and stats

Primera División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 7Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal de Pasarón, Pontevedra

PontevedraMérida AD

The Footlab AI model makes Pontevedra the favourite at 53%, against 25% for a draw and 22% for Mérida AD. The most likely score is 1-1. If Pontevedra wins, the most likely score is 2-1.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Pontevedra vs Mérida AD?

Pontevedra starts as the favourite with a 101-point Elo edge (1,904 vs 1,803).

53%25%22%
Pontevedra winDrawMérida AD win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Pontevedra vs Mérida AD

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Pontevedra

4-3-3
  1. 22A. Comparada Gonzalez
  2. 11Iñaki Elejalde
  3. 17Alberto Gil
  1. 10Y. Pino
  2. 6I. Ivorra
  3. 14L. Macias
  1. 16A. Vidorreta
  2. 5A. Perez
  3. 2A. Argos
  4. 20Rui Ferreira
  1. 1Raúl Marqueta

Mérida AD

4-3-3
  1. 21Raúl Beneit
  2. 19D. Sandoval
  3. 11S. El Ftouhi
  1. 6Jota
  2. 23Geovanny Almeida
  3. 8Martín Solar
  1. 2Alejandro Agustín
  2. 4Gonzalez Nacho
  3. 16Fito
  4. 5Hugo Sanz
  1. 1A. Csenterics

Computed on October 9, 2026 at 01:42 AM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Pontevedra have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Mérida AD have 4, 1 and 10.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Pontevedra
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 3, 2026Racing Ferrol(away)0-2Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Sep 27, 2026Ponferradina(home)1-1Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Sep 18, 2026UD Logroñés(away)1-1Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Sep 12, 2026Athletic Club II(home)1-3Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Sep 5, 2026Arenas Getxo(home)4-1Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Mérida AD
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 4, 2026Cacereño(home)2-0Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Sep 27, 2026UD Logroñés(home)3-5Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Sep 19, 2026Ponferradina(away)0-1Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Sep 12, 2026Mirandes(home)3-4Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Sep 6, 2026Cultural Leonesa(away)0-1Primera División RFEF - Group 1

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 4 meetings: 0 Pontevedra wins, 2 draws, 2 Mérida AD wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Jan 23, 2026Mérida AD 1-1 PontevedraPrimera División RFEF - Group 1
Nov 15, 2025Pontevedra 1-1 Mérida ADPrimera División RFEF - Group 1
Apr 15, 2023Pontevedra 1-5 Mérida ADPrimera División RFEF - Group 1
Oct 1, 2022Mérida AD 2-0 PontevedraPrimera División RFEF - Group 1

Last archived meeting: Mérida AD vs Pontevedra on Jan 23, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Pontevedra score 1.7 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Mérida AD score 0.9 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Pontevedra1.71.449/1510/15
Mérida AD0.91.925/156/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Pontevedra sit 11th in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 (8 points from 6 matches) and Mérida AD sit 14th (6 points from 6 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
11Pontevedra6222888
14Mérida AD62049116

A question about Pontevedra vs Mérida AD?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

Ask the AI a questionOpen the full match card in the app

Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Pontevedra vs Mérida AD?
The Footlab AI model makes Pontevedra the favourite at 53%, against 25% for a draw and 22% for Mérida AD.
Where and when is Pontevedra vs Mérida AD played?
Pontevedra vs Mérida AD is played on October 11, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal de Pasarón, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

Other matches in the same round

Next match: Pontevedra and Mérida AD

Ready to know everything about football?