Where and when is Pontevedra vs Mérida AD played?

Pontevedra vs Mérida AD is played on October 11, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal de Pasarón, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Pontevedra vs Mérida AD: prediction and stats

Primera División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 7Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal de Pasarón, Pontevedra

Pontevedra

Mérida AD

The Footlab model makes Pontevedra the favourite at 65%, against 22% for a draw and 13% for Mérida AD. The most likely score is 2-0.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Pontevedra vs Mérida AD?

Pontevedra starts as the favourite with a 115-point Elo edge (1,986 vs 1,871).

Pontevedra win65 %

Draw22 %

Mérida AD win13 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Pontevedra have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Mérida AD have 4, 3 and 8.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Pontevedra
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 19, 2026	Coruxo(away)	1-3	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 15, 2026	Ourense CF(home)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 8, 2026	Estradense(away)	5-0	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 1, 2026	Arosa(away)	1-3	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 29, 2026	Deportivo La Coruña II(home)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs

Mérida AD
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 14, 2026	Alcorcon(home)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 7, 2026	Leganes(away)	0-3	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 28, 2026	Al-Nassr(home)	0-2	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 25, 2026	Benfica B(away)	0-4	Friendlies Clubs
May 23, 2026	Osasuna II(away)	2-1	Primera División RFEF - Group 1

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 4 meetings: 0 Pontevedra win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Mérida AD win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Jan 23, 2026	Mérida AD 1-1 Pontevedra	Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Nov 15, 2025	Pontevedra 1-1 Mérida AD	Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Apr 15, 2023	Pontevedra 1-5 Mérida AD	Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Oct 1, 2022	Mérida AD 2-0 Pontevedra	Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Last archived meeting: Mérida AD vs Pontevedra on Jan 23, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Pontevedra score 1.9 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Mérida AD score 0.9 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Pontevedra	1.9	1.3	4	9/15	11/15
Mérida AD	0.9	1.9	1	8/15	7/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Pontevedra sit 6th in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 (58 points from 38 matches) and Mérida AD sit 10th (52 points from 38 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
6	Pontevedra	38	14	16	8	49	31	58
10	Mérida AD	38	14	10	14	47	53	52

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Pontevedra vs Mérida AD?: The Footlab model makes Pontevedra the favourite at 65%, against 22% for a draw and 13% for Mérida AD.
Where and when is Pontevedra vs Mérida AD played?: Pontevedra vs Mérida AD is played on October 11, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal de Pasarón, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.