Merthyr Town vs Harborough Town: prediction and stats
FA TrophyRound of 128Kick-off on November 14, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Penydarren Park, Merthyr Tydfil
The Footlab AI model makes Merthyr Town the favourite at 44%, against 24% for a draw and 32% for Harborough Town. The most likely score is 1-1. If Merthyr Town wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 5,555 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 12, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Merthyr Town vs Harborough Town?
A very open match: only 32 Elo points separate Merthyr Town (1,843) and Harborough Town (1,811).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Merthyr Town vs Harborough Town
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Merthyr Town
Not enough data to predict the Merthyr Town lineup.
Harborough Town
Not enough data to predict the Harborough Town lineup.
Computed on November 12, 2026 at 10:06 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Merthyr Town have 3 wins, 7 draws and 5 defeats; Harborough Town have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2026 | Hebburn Town(home) | 4-1 | National League - North |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Radcliffe(away) | 3-3 | National League - North |
| Oct 27, 2026 | Oxford City(away) | 0-3 | National League - North |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Morecambe(home) | 1-3 | National League - North |
| Oct 17, 2026 | King's Lynn Town(home) | 1-1 | National League - North |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2026 | Leyton Orient(away) | 1-5 | FA Cup |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Hebburn Town(away) | 1-1 | National League - North |
| Oct 27, 2026 | Buxton(away) | 0-3 | National League - North |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Worksop Town(home) | 1-1 | National League - North |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Spennymoor Town(home) | 3-1 | FA Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
Merthyr Town score 1.2 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Harborough Town score 1.2 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merthyr Town | 1.2 | 1.5 | 2 | 11/15 | 7/15 |
| Harborough Town | 1.2 | 1.5 | 3 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
A question about Merthyr Town vs Harborough Town?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Merthyr Town vs Harborough Town?
- The Footlab AI model makes Merthyr Town the favourite at 44%, against 24% for a draw and 32% for Harborough Town.
- Where and when is Merthyr Town vs Harborough Town played?
- Merthyr Town vs Harborough Town is played on November 14, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Penydarren Park, in the FA Trophy.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
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