Where and when is Spalding United vs Merthyr Town played?

Spalding United vs Merthyr Town is played on November 21, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Sir Halley Stewart Field, in the National League - North.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Spalding United vs Merthyr Town: prediction and stats

National League - NorthNational League North - 17Kick-off on November 21, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Sir Halley Stewart Field, Spalding, Lincolnshire

Spalding United

Merthyr Town

The Footlab model makes Spalding United the favourite at 46%, against 25% for a draw and 29% for Merthyr Town. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Spalding United vs Merthyr Town?

A very open match: only 30 Elo points separate Spalding United (1,901) and Merthyr Town (1,871).

Spalding United win46 %

Draw25 %

Merthyr Town win29 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Spalding United have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Merthyr Town have 4, 4 and 7.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Spalding United
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Chester(away)	0-1	National League - North
Aug 18, 2026	Macclesfield(home)	0-0	National League - North
Aug 15, 2026	Oxford City(home)	0-1	National League - North
Aug 8, 2026	Radcliffe(away)	2-0	National League - North
Jul 18, 2026	Scunthorpe(home)	2-2	Friendlies Clubs

Merthyr Town
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	South Shields(away)	1-1	National League - North
Aug 18, 2026	AFC Telford United(home)	2-2	National League - North
Aug 15, 2026	Spennymoor Town(away)	1-2	National League - North
Aug 8, 2026	Hednesford Town(home)	2-0	National League - North
Aug 1, 2026	Worcester City(away)	0-1	Friendlies Clubs

How many goals should we expect?

Spalding United score 1.7 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Merthyr Town score 1.5 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Spalding United	1.7	1.4	4	8/15	7/15
Merthyr Town	1.5	1.5	3	10/15	11/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Spalding United sit 13th in National League - North (4 points from 4 matches) and Merthyr Town sit 12th (5 points from 4 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
12	Merthyr Town	4	1	2	1	6	5	5
13	Spalding United	4	1	1	2	2	2	4

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Spalding United vs Merthyr Town?: The Footlab model makes Spalding United the favourite at 46%, against 25% for a draw and 29% for Merthyr Town.
Where and when is Spalding United vs Merthyr Town played?: Spalding United vs Merthyr Town is played on November 21, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Sir Halley Stewart Field, in the National League - North.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.