Spalding United vs Merthyr Town: prediction and stats
National League - NorthNational League North - 17Kick-off on November 21, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Sir Halley Stewart Field, Spalding, Lincolnshire
The Footlab AI model makes Spalding United the favourite at 55%, against 24% for a draw and 21% for Merthyr Town. The most likely score is 1-1. If Spalding United wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 4,496 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 4, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Spalding United vs Merthyr Town?
On Elo ratings, Spalding United has 1,875 points and Merthyr Town 1,789.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Spalding United vs Merthyr Town
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Spalding United
Not enough data to predict the Spalding United lineup.
Merthyr Town
Not enough data to predict the Merthyr Town lineup.
Computed on November 4, 2026 at 12:52 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Spalding United have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Merthyr Town have 2, 8 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Darlington 1883(home) | 3-2 | National League - North |
| Oct 27, 2026 | Brackley Town(home) | 2-2 | National League - North |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Hednesford Town(away) | 0-2 | National League - North |
| Oct 20, 2026 | Alvechurch(away) | 0-4 | FA Cup |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Alvechurch(home) | 2-2 | FA Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Radcliffe(away) | 3-3 | National League - North |
| Oct 27, 2026 | Oxford City(away) | 0-3 | National League - North |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Morecambe(home) | 1-3 | National League - North |
| Oct 17, 2026 | King's Lynn Town(home) | 1-1 | National League - North |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Darlington 1883(away) | 1-1 | National League - North |
How many goals should we expect?
Spalding United score 1.7 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Merthyr Town score 1.1 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spalding United | 1.7 | 1.3 | 3 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Merthyr Town | 1.1 | 1.5 | 2 | 11/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Spalding United sit 11th in National League - North (21 points from 14 matches) and Merthyr Town sit 19th (16 points from 15 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Spalding United | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 15 | 21 |
| 19 | Merthyr Town | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 18 | 22 | 16 |
A question about Spalding United vs Merthyr Town?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Spalding United vs Merthyr Town?
- The Footlab AI model makes Spalding United the favourite at 55%, against 24% for a draw and 21% for Merthyr Town.
- Where and when is Spalding United vs Merthyr Town played?
- Spalding United vs Merthyr Town is played on November 21, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Sir Halley Stewart Field, in the National League - North.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
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