Metalourg vs Shortan: prediction and stats
Pro League ARegular Season - 22Kick-off on October 12, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Metallurg Markaziy Stadion, Bekabad
The Footlab model makes Metalourg the favourite at 65%, against 21% for a draw and 14% for Shortan. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Metalourg vs Shortan?
A very open match: only 74 Elo points separate Metalourg (1,657) and Shortan (1,583).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Metalourg have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Shortan have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Qiziriq(away) | 3-0 | Pro League A |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Respublika FA(away) | 3-1 | Pro League A |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Yaypan(home) | 1-1 | Pro League A |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Aral(away) | 0-1 | Pro League A |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Lochin(home) | 5-0 | Pro League A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | FarDu(away) | 1-3 | Pro League A |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Kattaqurgon(home) | 1-0 | Pro League A |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Olimpik-Mobiuz(away) | 0-0 | Pro League A |
| Aug 5, 2026 | BuxDu(away) | 4-2 | Pro League A |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Respublika FA(home) | 2-1 | Pro League A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Metalourg win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Shortan win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 4, 2026 | Shortan 1-0 Metalourg | Pro League A |
| Aug 26, 2017 | Shortan 0-1 Metalourg | Super League |
| Mar 31, 2017 | Metalourg 4-2 Shortan | Super League |
| Aug 13, 2016 | Shortan 1-0 Metalourg | Super League |
| Apr 2, 2016 | Metalourg 3-2 Shortan | Super League |
| Nov 20, 2015 | Metalourg 1-0 Shortan | Super League |
How many goals should we expect?
Metalourg score 2.3 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Shortan score 1.5 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metalourg | 2.3 | 0.9 | 5 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Shortan | 1.5 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Metalourg sit 5th in Pro League A (28 points from 16 matches) and Shortan sit 2nd (33 points from 16 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Shortan | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 17 | 33 |
| 2 | Shortan | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 8 | 23 |
| 3 | Metalourg | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 23 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Metalourg | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 37 | 14 | 28 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Metalourg vs Shortan?
- The Footlab model makes Metalourg the favourite at 65%, against 21% for a draw and 14% for Shortan.
- Where and when is Metalourg vs Shortan played?
- Metalourg vs Shortan is played on October 12, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Metallurg Markaziy Stadion, in the Pro League A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.