Middlesbrough vs Watford: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 29Kick-off on January 30, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Riverside Stadium, Middlesbrough
The Footlab AI model makes Middlesbrough the favourite at 73%, against 17% for a draw and 10% for Watford. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Middlesbrough vs Watford?
Middlesbrough starts as the favourite with a 232-point Elo edge (2,009 vs 1,777).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Middlesbrough vs Watford
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Middlesbrough
3-4-2-1- 7W. Lankshear
- 2C. Brittain
- 10A. Morris
- 11A. Cozier-Duberry
- 30Neto Borges
- 6S. Berhalter
- 8R. McGree
- 29A. Malanda
- 4A. Phillips
- 12L. Ayling
- 1R. Vítek
Watford
4-2-3-1- 9L. Kjerrumgaard
- 5H. Kyprianou
- 39E. Kayembe
- 17Iker Bravo
- 7O. Maamma
- 20M. Doumbia
- 6M. Pollock
- 23O. Traoré
- 4K. Keben
- 33J. Zemura
- 1F. Ravaglia
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 07:41 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Middlesbrough have 8 wins, 5 draws and 2 defeats; Watford have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Stoke City(away) | 3-2 | Championship |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Wolves(home) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Birmingham(away) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Millwall(home) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Norwich(home) | 4-3 | Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Cardiff(away) | 1-5 | Championship |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Burnley(home) | 0-4 | Championship |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Bristol City(away) | 0-1 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Stoke City(home) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Preston(home) | 2-1 | Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Middlesbrough wins, 0 draws, 3 Watford wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | Middlesbrough 5-1 Watford | Championship |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Watford 3-0 Middlesbrough | Championship |
| Feb 15, 2025 | Middlesbrough 0-1 Watford | Championship |
| Oct 5, 2024 | Watford 2-1 Middlesbrough | Championship |
| May 4, 2024 | Middlesbrough 3-1 Watford | Championship |
| Sep 30, 2023 | Watford 2-3 Middlesbrough | Championship |
Last archived meeting: Middlesbrough vs Watford on Apr 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Middlesbrough score 1.9 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Watford score 1.0 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough | 1.9 | 1.5 | 3 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
| Watford | 1.0 | 1.8 | 2 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Middlesbrough sit 2nd in Championship (21 points from 10 matches) and Watford sit 22nd (8 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 20 | 14 | 21 |
| 22 | Watford | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 19 | 8 |
A question about Middlesbrough vs Watford?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Middlesbrough vs Watford?
- The Footlab AI model makes Middlesbrough the favourite at 73%, against 17% for a draw and 10% for Watford.
- Where and when is Middlesbrough vs Watford played?
- Middlesbrough vs Watford is played on January 30, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Riverside Stadium, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.