Watford vs Middlesbrough: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 15Kick-off on November 7, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Vicarage Road, Watford
The Footlab AI model makes Middlesbrough the favourite at 69%, against 19% for a draw and 12% for Watford. The most likely score is 0-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Watford vs Middlesbrough?
Middlesbrough starts as the favourite with a 216-point Elo edge (2,044 vs 1,829).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Watford vs Middlesbrough
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Watford
4-2-3-1- 9L. Kjerrumgaard
- 5H. Kyprianou
- 17Iker Bravo
- 20M. Doumbia
- 39E. Kayembe
- 21Amin Nabizada
- 6M. Pollock
- 3S. Coulibaly
- 29Branimir Mlačić
- 23O. Traoré
- 1F. Ravaglia
Middlesbrough
3-4-2-1- 7W. Lankshear
- 2C. Brittain
- 10A. Morris
- 11A. Cozier-Duberry
- 30Neto Borges
- 6S. Berhalter
- 8R. McGree
- 29A. Malanda
- 4A. Phillips
- 12L. Ayling
- 1R. Vítek
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 11:30 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Watford have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Middlesbrough have 8, 5 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Cardiff(away) | 1-5 | Championship |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Burnley(home) | 0-4 | Championship |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Bristol City(away) | 0-1 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Stoke City(home) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Preston(home) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Stoke City(away) | 3-2 | Championship |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Wolves(home) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Birmingham(away) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Millwall(home) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Norwich(home) | 4-3 | Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Watford wins, 0 draws, 3 Middlesbrough wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | Middlesbrough 5-1 Watford | Championship |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Watford 3-0 Middlesbrough | Championship |
| Feb 15, 2025 | Middlesbrough 0-1 Watford | Championship |
| Oct 5, 2024 | Watford 2-1 Middlesbrough | Championship |
| May 4, 2024 | Middlesbrough 3-1 Watford | Championship |
| Sep 30, 2023 | Watford 2-3 Middlesbrough | Championship |
Last archived meeting: Middlesbrough vs Watford on Apr 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Watford score 1.0 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Middlesbrough score 1.9 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watford | 1.0 | 1.8 | 2 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Middlesbrough | 1.9 | 1.5 | 3 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Watford sit 20th in Championship (8 points from 9 matches) and Middlesbrough sit 2nd (18 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 17 | 12 | 18 |
| 20 | Watford | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 8 |
A question about Watford vs Middlesbrough?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Watford vs Middlesbrough?
- The Footlab AI model makes Middlesbrough the favourite at 69%, against 19% for a draw and 12% for Watford.
- Where and when is Watford vs Middlesbrough played?
- Watford vs Middlesbrough is played on November 7, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Vicarage Road, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.