Millwall vs Middlesbrough: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 41Kick-off on April 6, 2027 at 06:45 PM (UTC)The Den, London
The Footlab model makes Millwall the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Middlesbrough. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Millwall vs Middlesbrough?
A very open match: only 40 Elo points separate Millwall (1,966) and Middlesbrough (1,926).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Millwall have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Middlesbrough have 4, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Norwich(home) | 3-0 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Bristol City(away) | 2-0 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | QPR(away) | 1-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Antwerp(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Bromley(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Blackburn(away) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Lincoln(home) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Wrexham(home) | 1-0 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Espanyol(home) | 3-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Celtic(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Millwall win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Middlesbrough win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2026 | Middlesbrough 1-2 Millwall | Championship |
| Aug 16, 2025 | Millwall 0-3 Middlesbrough | Championship |
| Apr 12, 2025 | Millwall 1-0 Middlesbrough | Championship |
| Dec 14, 2024 | Middlesbrough 1-0 Millwall | Championship |
| Jan 13, 2024 | Millwall 1-3 Middlesbrough | Championship |
| Aug 5, 2023 | Middlesbrough 0-1 Millwall | Championship |
Last archived meeting: Middlesbrough vs Millwall on Apr 3, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Millwall score 1.3 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Middlesbrough score 1.5 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Millwall | 1.3 | 0.7 | 6 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
| Middlesbrough | 1.5 | 1.3 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Millwall sit 1st in Championship (6 points from 2 matches) and Middlesbrough sit 11th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Millwall | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 6 |
| 11 | Middlesbrough | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Millwall vs Middlesbrough?
- The Footlab model makes Millwall the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Middlesbrough.
- Where and when is Millwall vs Middlesbrough played?
- Millwall vs Middlesbrough is played on April 6, 2027 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at The Den, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.