Stoke City vs Cardiff: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 41Kick-off on April 6, 2027 at 06:45 PM (UTC)bet365 Stadium, Stoke-on-Trent, Staffordshire
The Footlab model makes Cardiff the favourite at 50%, against 26% for a draw and 24% for Stoke City. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Stoke City vs Cardiff?
Cardiff starts as the favourite with a 219-point Elo edge (2,008 vs 1,788).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Stoke City have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Cardiff have 8, 5 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Southampton(away) | 1-3 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Swansea(home) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Oldham(home) | 2-0 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Valencia(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Everton(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Derby(away) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Wrexham(home) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Swindon Town(home) | 3-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | AS Roma(home) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Forest Green(away) | 5-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Stoke City win(s), 4 draw(s), 1 Cardiff win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2025 | Cardiff 0-1 Stoke City | Championship |
| Feb 8, 2025 | Stoke City 3-3 Cardiff | FA Cup |
| Dec 14, 2024 | Stoke City 2-2 Cardiff | Championship |
| Feb 24, 2024 | Cardiff 2-1 Stoke City | Championship |
| Nov 4, 2023 | Stoke City 0-0 Cardiff | Championship |
| Apr 22, 2023 | Cardiff 1-1 Stoke City | Championship |
Last archived meeting: Cardiff vs Stoke City on Apr 12, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Stoke City score 1.1 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Cardiff score 2.5 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stoke City | 1.1 | 1.6 | 3 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
| Cardiff | 2.5 | 1.5 | 3 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Stoke City sit 21st in Championship (0 points from 2 matches) and Cardiff sit 12th (2 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Cardiff | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| 21 | Stoke City | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Stoke City vs Cardiff?
- The Footlab model makes Cardiff the favourite at 50%, against 26% for a draw and 24% for Stoke City.
- Where and when is Stoke City vs Cardiff played?
- Stoke City vs Cardiff is played on April 6, 2027 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at bet365 Stadium, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.