ML Vitebsk vs Dinamo Minsk: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 21Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadyen DYuSSh-1, Rohachev
The Footlab model makes Dinamo Minsk the favourite at 37%, against 27% for a draw and 36% for ML Vitebsk. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win ML Vitebsk vs Dinamo Minsk?
A very open match: only 52 Elo points separate ML Vitebsk (1,840) and Dinamo Minsk (1,892).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, ML Vitebsk have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Dinamo Minsk have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Bate Borisov(home) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Baranovichi(home) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Borac Banja Luka(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Borac Banja Luka(away) | 0-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Sutjeska(away) | 2-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Torpedo Zhodino(home) | 4-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 13, 2026 | SC Braga(home) | 0-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 6, 2026 | SC Braga(away) | 0-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Neftchi Baku(home) | 0-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Neftchi Baku(away) | 4-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 ML Vitebsk win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Dinamo Minsk win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Dinamo Minsk 2-3 ML Vitebsk | Premier League |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Dinamo Minsk 1-0 ML Vitebsk | Coppa |
| Apr 15, 2026 | ML Vitebsk 0-2 Dinamo Minsk | Coppa |
| Nov 29, 2025 | Dinamo Minsk 1-1 ML Vitebsk | Premier League |
| Jul 3, 2025 | ML Vitebsk 2-0 Dinamo Minsk | Premier League |
| Feb 24, 2024 | Dinamo Minsk 2-1 ML Vitebsk | Friendlies Clubs |
Last archived meeting: Dinamo Minsk vs ML Vitebsk on May 3, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
ML Vitebsk score 1.7 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Dinamo Minsk score 1.6 and concede 0.6. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ML Vitebsk | 1.7 | 1.2 | 5 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Dinamo Minsk | 1.6 | 0.6 | 7 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
ML Vitebsk sit 2nd in Premier League (35 points from 16 matches) and Dinamo Minsk sit 1st (36 points from 15 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Minsk | 15 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 30 | 12 | 36 |
| 2 | ML Vitebsk | 16 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 32 | 13 | 35 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for ML Vitebsk vs Dinamo Minsk?
- The Footlab model makes Dinamo Minsk the favourite at 37%, against 27% for a draw and 36% for ML Vitebsk.
- Where and when is ML Vitebsk vs Dinamo Minsk played?
- ML Vitebsk vs Dinamo Minsk is played on September 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadyen DYuSSh-1, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.