FC Dnepr Mogilev vs ML Vitebsk: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 22Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadyen Spartak, Mogilev
The Footlab model makes ML Vitebsk the favourite at 68%, against 19% for a draw and 13% for FC Dnepr Mogilev. The most likely score is 0-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FC Dnepr Mogilev vs ML Vitebsk?
ML Vitebsk is a heavy favourite: 1,847 Elo points against 1,518 — a 329-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FC Dnepr Mogilev have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; ML Vitebsk have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Belshina(home) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Slavia Mozyr(away) | 0-3 | Premier League |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Naftan(home) | 3-3 | Premier League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Torpedo Zhodino(away) | 2-1 | Coppa |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Osipovichy(away) | 3-1 | Coppa |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Bate Borisov(home) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Baranovichi(home) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Borac Banja Luka(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Borac Banja Luka(away) | 0-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Sutjeska(away) | 2-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 FC Dnepr Mogilev win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 ML Vitebsk win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | ML Vitebsk 5-1 FC Dnepr Mogilev | Premier League |
| Feb 4, 2026 | ML Vitebsk 4-1 FC Dnepr Mogilev | Friendlies Clubs |
| Oct 29, 2023 | FC Dnepr Mogilev 2-1 ML Vitebsk | 1. Division |
| Jun 25, 2023 | ML Vitebsk 5-2 FC Dnepr Mogilev | 1. Division |
| Sep 20, 2020 | FC Dnepr Mogilev 0-1 ML Vitebsk | 2. Division |
| Jun 28, 2020 | ML Vitebsk 1-5 FC Dnepr Mogilev | 2. Division |
Last archived meeting: ML Vitebsk vs FC Dnepr Mogilev on May 10, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
FC Dnepr Mogilev score 1.1 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; ML Vitebsk score 1.7 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Dnepr Mogilev | 1.1 | 1.7 | 2 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| ML Vitebsk | 1.7 | 1.2 | 5 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
FC Dnepr Mogilev sit 15th in Premier League (13 points from 18 matches) and ML Vitebsk sit 2nd (35 points from 16 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | ML Vitebsk | 16 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 32 | 13 | 35 |
| 15 | FC Dnepr Mogilev | 18 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 16 | 29 | 13 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FC Dnepr Mogilev vs ML Vitebsk?
- The Footlab model makes ML Vitebsk the favourite at 68%, against 19% for a draw and 13% for FC Dnepr Mogilev.
- Where and when is FC Dnepr Mogilev vs ML Vitebsk played?
- FC Dnepr Mogilev vs ML Vitebsk is played on September 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadyen Spartak, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.