Mlada Boleslav vs Baník Ostrava: prediction and stats
Czech LigaRegular Season - 7Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Lokotrans Aréna, Mladá Boleslav
The Footlab model makes Mlada Boleslav the favourite at 45%, against 25% for a draw and 30% for Baník Ostrava. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mlada Boleslav vs Baník Ostrava?
A very open match: only 52 Elo points separate Mlada Boleslav (1,969) and Baník Ostrava (1,917).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mlada Boleslav have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Baník Ostrava have 8, 1 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Slovácko(home) | 2-1 | Czech Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Pardubice(away) | 1-1 | Czech Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Sparta Praha(home) | 2-0 | Czech Liga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Sigma Olomouc(away) | 2-2 | Czech Liga |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Artis(away) | 4-2 | Czech Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Artis(home) | 1-0 | Czech Liga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Hradec Králové(away) | 1-2 | Czech Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Slavia Praha(home) | 0-4 | Czech Liga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Zlin(away) | 1-0 | Czech Liga |
| Jul 18, 2026 | AS Trencin(away) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Mlada Boleslav win(s), 4 draw(s), 1 Baník Ostrava win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 2, 2026 | Baník Ostrava 0-0 Mlada Boleslav | Czech Liga |
| Feb 22, 2026 | Baník Ostrava 0-0 Mlada Boleslav | Czech Liga |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Mlada Boleslav 1-1 Baník Ostrava | Czech Liga |
| Mar 9, 2025 | Baník Ostrava 2-1 Mlada Boleslav | Czech Liga |
| Oct 6, 2024 | Mlada Boleslav 0-0 Baník Ostrava | Czech Liga |
| May 11, 2024 | Baník Ostrava 0-1 Mlada Boleslav | Czech Liga |
Last archived meeting: Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav on May 2, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Mlada Boleslav score 2.0 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Baník Ostrava score 1.8 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mlada Boleslav | 2.0 | 1.0 | 6 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Baník Ostrava | 1.8 | 1.1 | 7 | 6/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mlada Boleslav sit 2nd in Czech Liga (11 points from 5 matches) and Baník Ostrava sit 10th (6 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Mlada Boleslav | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 6 | 11 |
| 10 | Baník Ostrava | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mlada Boleslav vs Baník Ostrava?
- The Footlab model makes Mlada Boleslav the favourite at 45%, against 25% for a draw and 30% for Baník Ostrava.
- Where and when is Mlada Boleslav vs Baník Ostrava played?
- Mlada Boleslav vs Baník Ostrava is played on September 5, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Lokotrans Aréna, in the Czech Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.