Mold Alexandra vs Porthmadog: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipNorth - 15Kick-off on November 21, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Alyn Park, Mold, Flintshire
The Footlab model makes Mold Alexandra the favourite at 46%, against 25% for a draw and 28% for Porthmadog. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mold Alexandra vs Porthmadog?
Mold Alexandra starts as the favourite with a 120-point Elo edge (1,627 vs 1,508).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mold Alexandra have 10 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats; Porthmadog have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Buckley Town(home) | 1-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Holyhead Hotspur(home) | 1-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Guilsfield(away) | 2-3 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Caersws(home) | 2-2 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Flint Mountain(home) | 3-1 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Denbigh Town(away) | 3-2 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Buckley Town(away) | 1-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Rhyl(home) | 1-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Penrhyncoch(away) | 3-1 | FAW Championship |
| Dec 13, 2025 | Rhyl(home) | 1-2 | Welsh Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Mold Alexandra win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Porthmadog win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2024 | Porthmadog 1-2 Mold Alexandra | FAW Championship |
| Oct 7, 2023 | Mold Alexandra 5-1 Porthmadog | FAW Championship |
| Feb 25, 2023 | Mold Alexandra 2-2 Porthmadog | FAW Championship |
| Jan 14, 2023 | Porthmadog 0-1 Mold Alexandra | FAW Championship |
| Sep 17, 2022 | Porthmadog 3-4 Mold Alexandra | Welsh Cup |
| Oct 12, 2013 | Porthmadog 1-0 Mold Alexandra | Welsh Cup |
Last archived meeting: Porthmadog vs Mold Alexandra on Jan 20, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Mold Alexandra score 1.6 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Porthmadog score 1.5 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mold Alexandra | 1.6 | 1.5 | 4 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Porthmadog | 1.5 | 1.7 | 2 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mold Alexandra sit 6th in FAW Championship (7 points from 4 matches) and Porthmadog sit 2nd (10 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Porthmadog | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 10 |
| 6 | Mold Alexandra | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mold Alexandra vs Porthmadog?
- The Footlab model makes Mold Alexandra the favourite at 46%, against 25% for a draw and 28% for Porthmadog.
- Where and when is Mold Alexandra vs Porthmadog played?
- Mold Alexandra vs Porthmadog is played on November 21, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Alyn Park, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.