Penrhyncoch vs Rhyl: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipNorth - 15Kick-off on November 21, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Cae Baker, Penrhyncoch, Ceredigion
The Footlab model makes Penrhyncoch the favourite at 42%, against 25% for a draw and 33% for Rhyl. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Penrhyncoch vs Rhyl?
A very open match: only 78 Elo points separate Penrhyncoch (1,540) and Rhyl (1,619).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Penrhyncoch have 7 wins, 0 draws and 8 defeats; Rhyl have 7, 1 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Brickfield Rangers(away) | 0-2 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Newtown AFC(away) | 0-5 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Porthmadog(home) | 1-3 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Rhyl(home) | 3-0 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Gresford Athletic(home) | 4-1 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Caersws(home) | 4-2 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Porthmadog(away) | 0-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Guilsfield(home) | 1-1 | FAW Championship |
| Jul 7, 2026 | Colwyn Bay(away) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Penrhyncoch(away) | 0-3 | FAW Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 2 Penrhyncoch win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Rhyl win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2026 | Penrhyncoch 3-0 Rhyl | FAW Championship |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Rhyl 3-1 Penrhyncoch | FAW Championship |
| Feb 8, 2020 | Penrhyncoch 2-1 Rhyl | FAW Championship |
| Sep 21, 2019 | Rhyl 0-0 Penrhyncoch | FAW Championship |
| Dec 3, 2016 | Rhyl 6-0 Penrhyncoch | Welsh Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
Penrhyncoch score 1.5 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Rhyl score 1.4 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penrhyncoch | 1.5 | 1.8 | 3 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
| Rhyl | 1.4 | 1.6 | 4 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Penrhyncoch sit 15th in FAW Championship (0 points from 3 matches) and Rhyl sit 8th (5 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Rhyl | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
| 15 | Penrhyncoch | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Penrhyncoch vs Rhyl?
- The Footlab model makes Penrhyncoch the favourite at 42%, against 25% for a draw and 33% for Rhyl.
- Where and when is Penrhyncoch vs Rhyl played?
- Penrhyncoch vs Rhyl is played on November 21, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Cae Baker, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.