Mombasa Elite vs Mara Sugar: prediction and stats
FKF Premier LeagueRegular Season - 25Kick-off on March 7, 2027 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Mbaraki Sports Club, Mombasa
The Footlab AI model makes Mara Sugar the favourite at 38%, against 33% for a draw and 29% for Mombasa Elite. The most likely score is 0-0. If Mara Sugar wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 4,626 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 6, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mombasa Elite vs Mara Sugar?
Mara Sugar starts as the favourite with a 101-point Elo edge (1,478 vs 1,376).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Mombasa Elite vs Mara Sugar
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Mombasa Elite
Not enough data to predict the Mombasa Elite lineup.
Mara Sugar
Not enough data to predict the Mara Sugar lineup.
Computed on November 6, 2026 at 07:43 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mombasa Elite have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Mara Sugar have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | Migori Youth(away) | 0-2 | FKF Premier League |
| Oct 28, 2026 | KCB(away) | 1-3 | FKF Premier League |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Kenya Police(home) | 0-0 | FKF Premier League |
| Oct 19, 2026 | Mara Sugar(away) | 1-2 | FKF Premier League |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Homeboyz(home) | 0-1 | FKF Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2026 | Tusker(away) | 1-3 | FKF Premier League |
| Oct 28, 2026 | AFC Leopards(home) | 0-0 | FKF Premier League |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Ulinzi Stars(away) | 0-0 | FKF Premier League |
| Oct 19, 2026 | Mombasa Elite(home) | 2-1 | FKF Premier League |
| Oct 11, 2026 | 3K(away) | 2-2 | FKF Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Mombasa Elite win, 1 draw, 4 Mara Sugar wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 19, 2026 | Mara Sugar 2-1 Mombasa Elite | FKF Premier League |
| Mar 16, 2024 | Mombasa Elite 0-2 Mara Sugar | Super League |
| Nov 11, 2023 | Mara Sugar 3-2 Mombasa Elite | Super League |
| Jun 23, 2023 | Mombasa Elite 0-0 Mara Sugar | Super League |
| Mar 11, 2023 | Mara Sugar 2-1 Mombasa Elite | Super League |
| Apr 16, 2022 | Mara Sugar 0-1 Mombasa Elite | Super League |
Last archived meeting: Mara Sugar vs Mombasa Elite on Oct 19, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Mombasa Elite score 0.7 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Mara Sugar score 0.8 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 32% probability of over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mombasa Elite | 0.7 | 1.0 | 6 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
| Mara Sugar | 0.8 | 0.9 | 7 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mombasa Elite sit 18th in FKF Premier League (1 point from 5 matches) and Mara Sugar sit 11th (6 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Mara Sugar | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 6 |
| 18 | Mombasa Elite | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 1 |
A question about Mombasa Elite vs Mara Sugar?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mombasa Elite vs Mara Sugar?
- The Footlab AI model makes Mara Sugar the favourite at 38%, against 33% for a draw and 29% for Mombasa Elite.
- Where and when is Mombasa Elite vs Mara Sugar played?
- Mombasa Elite vs Mara Sugar is played on March 7, 2027 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Mbaraki Sports Club, in the FKF Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 32% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.