Mara Sugar vs Tusker: prediction and stats
FKF Premier LeagueRegular Season - 26Kick-off on March 10, 2027 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Green Stadium, Awendo
The Footlab model makes Mara Sugar the favourite at 35%, against 35% for a draw and 29% for Tusker. The most likely score is 0-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mara Sugar vs Tusker?
A very open match: only 42 Elo points separate Mara Sugar (1,478) and Tusker (1,520).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mara Sugar have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Tusker have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | Murang'a SEAL(away) | 1-2 | FKF Premier League |
| May 27, 2026 | GOR Mahia(home) | 0-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 16, 2026 | Mathare United(home) | 0-1 | FKF Premier League |
| May 13, 2026 | Shabana(home) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 9, 2026 | AFC Leopards(away) | 1-2 | FKF Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1, 2026 | KVZ(home) | 2-0 | CECAFA Club Cup |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Rayon Sports(home) | 0-1 | CECAFA Club Cup |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Al Hilal Omdurman(away) | 0-2 | CECAFA Club Cup |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Police(home) | 2-1 | Shield Cup |
| May 31, 2026 | APS Bomet(home) | 1-1 | FKF Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 1 Mara Sugar win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Tusker win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2026 | Tusker 0-1 Mara Sugar | FKF Premier League |
| Nov 29, 2025 | Mara Sugar 0-1 Tusker | FKF Premier League |
| Apr 6, 2025 | Mara Sugar 1-1 Tusker | FKF Premier League |
| Nov 27, 2024 | Tusker 2-1 Mara Sugar | FKF Premier League |
| Sep 18, 2022 | Mara Sugar 1-2 Tusker | Friendlies Clubs |
How many goals should we expect?
Mara Sugar score 0.9 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Tusker score 0.7 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 25% probability of over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mara Sugar | 0.9 | 0.7 | 7 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Tusker | 0.7 | 0.7 | 6 | 3/15 | 2/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mara Sugar sit 11th in FKF Premier League (44 points from 34 matches) and Tusker sit 9th (45 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Tusker | 34 | 13 | 6 | 15 | 27 | 32 | 45 |
| 11 | Mara Sugar | 34 | 10 | 14 | 10 | 30 | 30 | 44 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mara Sugar vs Tusker?
- The Footlab model makes Mara Sugar the favourite at 35%, against 35% for a draw and 29% for Tusker.
- Where and when is Mara Sugar vs Tusker played?
- Mara Sugar vs Tusker is played on March 10, 2027 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Green Stadium, in the FKF Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 25% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.