Mara Sugar vs Tusker: prediction and stats
FKF Premier LeagueRegular Season - 26Kick-off on March 10, 2027 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Green Stadium, Awendo
The Footlab AI model calls this one tight: 32% for Mara Sugar, 35% for a draw, 33% for Tusker. The most likely score is 0-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,576 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 17, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mara Sugar vs Tusker?
A very open match: only 72 Elo points separate Mara Sugar (1,486) and Tusker (1,558).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Mara Sugar vs Tusker
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Mara Sugar
Not enough data to predict the Mara Sugar lineup.
Tusker
Not enough data to predict the Tusker lineup.
Computed on October 17, 2026 at 06:44 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mara Sugar have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; Tusker have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | 3K(away) | 2-2 | FKF Premier League |
| May 31, 2026 | Murang'a SEAL(away) | 1-2 | FKF Premier League |
| May 27, 2026 | GOR Mahia(home) | 0-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 16, 2026 | Mathare United(home) | 0-1 | FKF Premier League |
| May 13, 2026 | Shabana(home) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Ulinzi Stars(away) | 2-0 | FKF Premier League |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Al Ahli Wad Medani(home) | 1-0 | CAF Confederation Cup |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Al Ahli Wad Medani(away) | 2-2 | CAF Confederation Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | KVZ(home) | 2-0 | CECAFA Club Cup |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Rayon Sports(home) | 0-1 | CECAFA Club Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 1 Mara Sugar win, 1 draw, 3 Tusker wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2026 | Tusker 0-1 Mara Sugar | FKF Premier League |
| Nov 29, 2025 | Mara Sugar 0-1 Tusker | FKF Premier League |
| Apr 6, 2025 | Mara Sugar 1-1 Tusker | FKF Premier League |
| Nov 27, 2024 | Tusker 2-1 Mara Sugar | FKF Premier League |
| Sep 18, 2022 | Mara Sugar 1-2 Tusker | Friendlies Clubs |
How many goals should we expect?
Mara Sugar score 0.9 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Tusker score 0.9 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 27% probability of over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mara Sugar | 0.9 | 0.8 | 7 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Tusker | 0.9 | 0.9 | 5 | 4/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mara Sugar sit 6th in FKF Premier League (1 point from 1 match) and Tusker sit 2nd (3 points from 1 match).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tusker | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | Mara Sugar | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
A question about Mara Sugar vs Tusker?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mara Sugar vs Tusker?
- The Footlab AI model calls this one tight: 32% for Mara Sugar, 35% for a draw, 33% for Tusker.
- Where and when is Mara Sugar vs Tusker played?
- Mara Sugar vs Tusker is played on March 10, 2027 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Green Stadium, in the FKF Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 27% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.