Nairobi United vs Mathare United: prediction and stats
FKF Premier LeagueRegular Season - 25Kick-off on March 7, 2027 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Nyayo National Stadium, Nairobi
The Footlab AI model makes Nairobi United the favourite at 45%, against 31% for a draw and 24% for Mathare United. The most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 2,997 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 22, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Nairobi United vs Mathare United?
A very open match: only 97 Elo points separate Nairobi United (1,539) and Mathare United (1,442).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Nairobi United vs Mathare United
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Nairobi United
4-3-3- 33B. Ochieng
- 5S. Mwinyi
- 10H. Muhadjiri
- 29D. Odhiambo
- 24L. Owino
- 26B. Mzee
- 34L. Ogutu
- 2Y. Mainge
- 12K. Otiende
- 4J. Otieno
- 32K. Oduor
Mathare United
Not enough data to predict the Mathare United lineup.
Computed on October 22, 2026 at 02:05 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Nairobi United have 6 wins, 7 draws and 2 defeats; Mathare United have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Shabana(away) | 0-0 | FKF Premier League |
| Oct 11, 2026 | KCB(home) | 2-2 | FKF Premier League |
| May 31, 2026 | GOR Mahia(away) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 24, 2026 | Police(home) | 0-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 16, 2026 | Posta Rangers FC(home) | 2-2 | FKF Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | KCB(away) | 0-1 | FKF Premier League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | APS Bomet(home) | 0-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 31, 2026 | Bandari(home) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 23, 2026 | Ulinzi Stars(away) | 1-2 | FKF Premier League |
| May 16, 2026 | Mara Sugar(away) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Nairobi United win, 0 draws, 3 Mathare United wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | Mathare United 1-2 Nairobi United | FKF Premier League |
| Dec 4, 2025 | Nairobi United 0-1 Mathare United | FKF Premier League |
| Jun 7, 2024 | Nairobi United 2-3 Mathare United | Super League |
| Nov 15, 2023 | Mathare United 2-0 Nairobi United | Super League |
Last archived meeting: Mathare United vs Nairobi United on Apr 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Nairobi United score 1.3 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Mathare United score 1.0 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 34% probability of over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nairobi United | 1.3 | 0.9 | 7 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Mathare United | 1.0 | 1.1 | 5 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Nairobi United sit 10th in FKF Premier League (2 points from 2 matches) and Mathare United sit 14th (1 point from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Nairobi United | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 14 | Mathare United | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
A question about Nairobi United vs Mathare United?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Nairobi United vs Mathare United?
- The Footlab AI model makes Nairobi United the favourite at 45%, against 31% for a draw and 24% for Mathare United.
- Where and when is Nairobi United vs Mathare United played?
- Nairobi United vs Mathare United is played on March 7, 2027 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Nyayo National Stadium, in the FKF Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 34% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.