Monaco vs Marseille: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 2Kick-off on August 30, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Stade Louis-II, Monaco
The Footlab model makes Monaco the favourite at 45%, against 24% for a draw and 31% for Marseille. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Monaco vs Marseille?
A very open match: only 1 Elo points separate Monaco (2,087) and Marseille (2,088).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Monaco have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Marseille have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Gornik Zabrze(away) | 3-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Coventry(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Liverpool(away) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Getafe(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Cercle Brugge(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Strasbourg(home) | 4-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Atletico Madrid(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Athletic Club(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Nimes(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 17, 2026 | Rennes(home) | 3-1 | Ligue 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Monaco win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Marseille win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2026 | Monaco 2-1 Marseille | Ligue 1 |
| Dec 14, 2025 | Marseille 1-0 Monaco | Ligue 1 |
| Apr 12, 2025 | Monaco 3-0 Marseille | Ligue 1 |
| Dec 1, 2024 | Marseille 2-1 Monaco | Ligue 1 |
| Jan 27, 2024 | Marseille 2-2 Monaco | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 30, 2023 | Monaco 3-2 Marseille | Ligue 1 |
How many goals should we expect?
Monaco score 1.9 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Marseille score 1.6 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monaco | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
| Marseille | 1.6 | 1.2 | 4 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marseille | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Monaco vs Marseille?
- The Footlab model makes Monaco the favourite at 45%, against 24% for a draw and 31% for Marseille.
- Where and when is Monaco vs Marseille played?
- Monaco vs Marseille is played on August 30, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Stade Louis-II, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.