Lille vs Paris Saint Germain: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 2Kick-off on August 28, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Villeneuve d'Ascq
The Footlab model makes Paris Saint Germain the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Lille. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lille vs Paris Saint Germain?
Paris Saint Germain starts as the favourite with a 206-point Elo edge (2,299 vs 2,093).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lille have 9 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats; Paris Saint Germain have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Angers(away) | 2-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Everton(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Hamburger SV(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | OH Leuven(away) | 6-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | RAAL La Louvière(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Rennes(away) | 2-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Lens(away) | 0-1 | Trophée des Champions |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Aston Villa(home) | 2-1 | UEFA Super Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Manchester United(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Mallorca(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Lille win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 Paris Saint Germain win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain 3-0 Lille | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Lille 1-1 Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 |
| Mar 1, 2025 | Paris Saint Germain 4-1 Lille | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 1, 2024 | Lille 1-3 Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 |
| Feb 10, 2024 | Paris Saint Germain 3-1 Lille | Ligue 1 |
| Dec 17, 2023 | Lille 1-1 Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 |
Last archived meeting: Paris Saint Germain vs Lille on Jan 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Lille score 1.9 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Paris Saint Germain score 1.7 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille | 1.9 | 0.9 | 7 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Paris Saint Germain | 1.7 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lille sit 3rd in Ligue 1 (3 points from 1 matches) and Paris Saint Germain sit 9th (1 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Lille | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | Paris Saint Germain | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lille vs Paris Saint Germain?
- The Footlab model makes Paris Saint Germain the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Lille.
- Where and when is Lille vs Paris Saint Germain played?
- Lille vs Paris Saint Germain is played on August 28, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.