Auxerre vs Marseille: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 12Kick-off on November 28, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Auxerre
The Footlab model makes Marseille the favourite at 41%, against 25% for a draw and 34% for Auxerre. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Auxerre vs Marseille?
Marseille starts as the favourite with a 131-point Elo edge (2,088 vs 1,957).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Auxerre have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Marseille have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Lens(away) | 2-5 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Werder Bremen(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Estac Troyes(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Sochaux(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Orleans(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Strasbourg(home) | 4-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Atletico Madrid(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Athletic Club(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Nimes(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 17, 2026 | Rennes(home) | 3-1 | Ligue 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Auxerre win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Marseille win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 13, 2026 | Marseille 1-0 Auxerre | Ligue 1 |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Auxerre 0-1 Marseille | Ligue 1 |
| Feb 22, 2025 | Auxerre 3-0 Marseille | Ligue 1 |
| Nov 8, 2024 | Marseille 1-3 Auxerre | Ligue 1 |
| Apr 30, 2023 | Marseille 2-1 Auxerre | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 3, 2022 | Auxerre 0-2 Marseille | Ligue 1 |
How many goals should we expect?
Auxerre score 1.7 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Marseille score 1.6 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auxerre | 1.7 | 1.3 | 4 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Marseille | 1.6 | 1.2 | 4 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Auxerre sit 17th in Ligue 1 (0 points from 1 matches) and Marseille sit 1st (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marseille | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 17 | Auxerre | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Auxerre vs Marseille?
- The Footlab model makes Marseille the favourite at 41%, against 25% for a draw and 34% for Auxerre.
- Where and when is Auxerre vs Marseille played?
- Auxerre vs Marseille is played on November 28, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.